The astonishingly resilient anti-Communist majority

CNN took advantage of today's meeting between President Obama and the Dalai Lama to conduct a poll on American attitudes toward the Chinese Communist Party. The results were a pleasant surprise, to say the least.

First, it should come as no surprise that the Dalai Lama is very well-liked in the United States. The rest of the poll regarding Tibet seems contradictory at first.

Nearly three-quarters of all Americans think Tibet should be an independent country, according to a new national poll.

However, the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Thursday also indicates that most Americans think it is more important to maintain good relations with China than to take a stand on Tibet.

Again, that may sound contradictory, but we have to remember that the Dalai Lama himself repeatedly insists that he is not demanding independence, and he himself has been trying to build bridges to Zhongnanhai. The independence question aside, the American people are largely following the Dalai Lama's lead.

Meanwhile, as one would expect, human rights remains at the forefront of American thinking:

The poll also indicates that 53 percent say it's more important for the United States to take a strong stand on human rights in China than to maintain good relations with Beijing, with 44 percent saying good relations are more important.

Where things get interesting is the "Taiwan question":

By a 6-point margin, the survey also shows that more Americans say taking a strong stand on Taiwan by force is more important than maintaining good relations with Beijing.

Read that again, slowly, and you'll see how dramatic a statement that is.

We're talking about Taiwan (a.k.a. the Republic of China), a subject so delicate even the anti-Communist community has to treat it with kid gloves. Making matters even more difficult, the solution most anti-Communists would prefer (an anti-Communist movement willing to help the mainland overthrow the CCP and then reunify with a democratic China) has vanished over the last few years do to event that have led to a Communist-friendly vs. anti-Communist/pro-independence polarization, with the latter also suffering from a serious corruption hangover that allowed the former to sweep the electoral field in 2007 and 2008.

On top of that, the poll asked about "taking a strong stand on Taiwan by force." In other words, the American people - in the midst of a two-pronged war against al Qaeda and the Great Recession - were asked about effectively going to war to protect the island democracy, with all of its troubles, against a would-be (and soon, will-be) superpower.

Despite all of this, the American people responded, "Sign me up."

This is the latest - and probably, the most dramatic - example of the American people's resilient anti-Communism. For much of the 1990's, a majority of Americans called the "China" a threat (they meant the CCP, trust me), but in part, that could have been Republican reaction to the Clinton Administration's "engagement" with the regime.

Now, in 2010, Republicans and Democrats have seen one of their own espouse "engagement" in the White House in an attempt to get Beijing's cooperation on their respective foreign policy objectives. Despite this, the anti-Communism did not wane. If anything, it became more resolute (I know of no poll that said Americans in the 1990s were willing to use military force to defend the ROC).

In the 1930's, the Democrats embraced anti-fascism: they completely dominated American politics until 1953. In the late 1970's, the Republicans firmly stood against European Communism. From 1980 to 2008, they were the driving force in American politics.

This poll confirms what I have said it before, and I am compelled to say it again: the party that embraces the anti-Communist majority will be the majority party in American politics for at least the next generation. If history is any indication, it will also lead the American and Chinese peoples to victory over the CCP.

What we still do not know - and had best figure out soon - is this: which party is it going to be? One could make the argument for either the Democrats or the Republicans. In fact, liberals and conservatives are more likely to be anti-Communists than moderates, further complicating not only partisan predictions but, more importantly, making it harder to build a political coalition.

However, this poll clearly shows that the coalition can be built, and events around the world show it must be built. The questions remain: when and who?

A dangerous paradigm shift

This past week, the anti-Communist community came to grips with the painful reality best described by this summary of the Greek tragedy genre: "Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it."

After spending nearly ten years trying to warn my fellow Americans about the dangers of the Chinese Communist Party (and compared to some of the giants in the movement, I'm still a rookie), it is becoming clear that the "chattering classes" finally recognize the danger (a majority of Americans have always understood the problem). Unfortunately, the mood in the corridors of power and punditry have shifted not to firm resolve to resist the CCP, but mordant despair over its eventual conquest of the world.

The best (or, perhaps, worst) example of the gloom and doom comes from John Tkacik, a leading anti-Communist himself and a longtime defender of the island democracy currently on Taiwan (National Review Online):

As the smoke clears from President Obama’s 2009 Asia tour, America’s new status as the second-most powerful nation on earth is no longer obscured. It is the measure of a superpower that nobody else tells it what to do, but America is no longer the superpower. It is now China whom no one dares lecture.

The Obama administration has failed to muster the leverage necessary to gain China’s cooperation on any of its global priorities: nuclear proliferation, climate change, trade, exchange rates, human rights, competition for resources, environmental despoliation, or moderating China’s territorial claims against its neighbors — most of which are America’s friends and allies.

It simply is not credible in Beijing that Obama’s Washington has the courage to come up with an “or else” if China insists on pursuing its goals via a robust state-mercantilist ideology. So Beijing now does what it will, and will lecture the U.S. president if it pleases.

This was evident in Obama’s handling of the Tibet issue. He dared not meet with his fellow Nobel Laureate, the Dalai Lama, because China was not pleased. In his comments to Chinese leaders, Obama reassured them that the United States recognizes that Tibet is part of the People’s Republic of China,” without pausing to consider that China claims 32,000 square miles of Indian territory — the state of Arunachal Pradesh — as “part of Tibet.” Clearly, President Obama sees his challenge as managing America’s decline gracefully.

Now, not everyone is as glum as Tkacik, but most have a similar theme, driven by either criticism of the Obama Administration (which is justified) or concern over CCP-held American debt (which is badly overblown). Thus, I am now forced to shift gears myself, and remind everyone that things really aren't that bad.

True, the obsequiousness of the president is deeply disturbing, but that's not just for anti-Communists (see Victor Davis Hanson, also in NRO, for the overall details). America's allies are starting to notice the trend in other areas, too, and are not happy (America in the World, UK). Moreover, while "engagement" has become a standard lunacy among American presidents over the last two decades, the Obama version is so bad that even "engagement" luminaries such as the Financial Times (also UK) are telling the president that he "need not – and must not – kowtow" (via AITW).

In fact, the FT even goes so far as to detonate the myth of the CCP's power as American creditor: "Contrary to common perception, China’s huge holdings of US treasuries are not a sign of great strength. They are evidence of how dependent Chinese growth has been on the US consumer." I take a somewhat different angle in my view on the subject, but any comments that steer clear of unnecessary pessimism is welcome at this point.

In reality, America is weak toward the CCP because President Obama chooses to be weak. For the democracy on Taiwan - which is facing both a likely invasion deadline of 2012 and its own lack of resolve - this isn't very consoling. The American people, however, have available a simple solution - replace Obama with an anti-Communist president. Whether any Republicans or other Democrats are willing to embrace the anti-Communist model is another question, but Obama's errors here make it much more likely.

Indeed, the recent election results in New Jersey hint to a second, and still underemphasized, reason for optimism: India. Even the FT took note of India's role as "a potential regional counterweight to China." Now, I've been talking about the geopolitical importance of India for years, but if what Michael Barone (DC Examiner) is any indication, Indian-Americans may be shifting to the Republicans. This will give the GOP more reason to emphasize India's role in the world. Democrats, if they're wise, will likely follow suit (lest anyone forget, the first notion of upending Communist regimes in Eastern Europe came from Republican candidates desperate to peel immigrants from said countries away from the Democrats in the 1950s). As more Americans become aware that there are three superpowers rather than two - and that the "third" is a far better fit with the free world than the CCP - they will realize their strength, and demand leaders act upon said strength.

Last but most, we need to remember the adversary: the Chinese Communist Party. Yes, it is bloodthirsty, ruthless, and very effective is presenting the veneer of respectable calm across Chinese and occupied territory. In the final piece of irony, it is John Derbyshire (author of the pessimism manifesto titled We Are Doomed), who reminds us of our reasons for hope:

Let us bear in mind that those (economic) growth rates are based on an economic model that may already have ceased to be tenable (see Gordon Chang in the November 23 issue of National Review); that Chinese weapons, now as in the past, are intended for use against those inhabitants, or recalcitrant ex-inhabitants, of the Celestial Empire who will not bow to the Son of Heaven; that Chinese diplomats excel mainly at making their nation disliked; that resentments of class and wealth inequality can sunder a nation as surely as can ethnic troubles; and that the median duration of a Chinese dynasty has been 45 years.

In other words, between America and the CCP, America is the weakest - except for the CCP.

So, while we can shake our heads at the Obama Administration's mistakes, and cringe as the CCP takes advantage of them, the fundamentals have not really changed. The CCP is still a regime hiding its weaknesses from itself and everyone else, while America and the rest of the free world has strengths that remain unacknowledged - or even ignored - but won't disappear.

After all, how many of us on December 31, 1979 would even dare dream that European Communism would be crushed just a dozen years later?

The Communist edifice of lies and its weak foundation

The Chinese Communist regime announced to the United Nations that it was developing "a major move to advance human rights protection in China" (Agence France Presse via Yahoo). That was more than enough for their usual friends on the UN Human Rights Council (Pakistan, Sudan, etc.), although Canada refused to fall for it (Voice of American News).

Within 24 hours, Gao Zhisheng's arrest by Communist police hit the internet (Worthy News). Oops.

Not the the cadres will mind, much. They've survived such juxtapositions in the past. So long as the rest of the world was content to line their coffers and praise their "reforms," the leaders and the members of the Chinese Communist Party were content to just ignore the minimal effect of their blatant disregard for their own words.

That's where the trouble comes in (for them): neither of the above are happening anymore.

The cadres themselves had to admit that roughly half of their toymaking firms fell under the waves of the global recession last year (AFP via Google and the Financial Post). The effect is cascading into other sectors (Wall Street Journal's China Journal Blog), but even that paled in comparison to the bigger danger for the regime. The recession is causing economists and financiers around the world to notice the cadres' penchant for padding its statistics (China Journal Blog).

Of course, in many capitals, the old combination of smiles and promises of economic aid can still work its magic (AFP via Google, AFP via Yahoo). However, in the private sector, the magic is gone. Foreign investment in Communist China fell by nearly a third last month alone (AFP via Yahoo).

It's gotten so bad now that even when a Communist-owned firm invests abroad, local investors are choosing to take their own money and run (AFP via Yahoo).

Meanwhile, in the developed democracies of the world, the Communists are running into a bit more flak then they anticipated. Rome's hard-left mayor reminded the world of the long-running anti-Communist impulse in European socialists by welcoming the Dalai Lama (AFP via Yahoo). The embrace of anti-Communism by India's Congress Party has the cadres doing a painful double-take (AFP via Yahoo).

Finally, in the United States, where Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is moving heaven and earth to shift from George W. Bush's largely friendly policy towards the CCP to her husband's even more friendly policy towards the CCP (Global TV and the Washington Post), Communist cyberhackers are leading others in the American government the opposite way (Bloomberg and China Aid) - including, ominously for the cadres, the president himself (AFP via Google).

Has any of this slowed down the cadres rapacious appetite for global power and resources? Of course not. The buying spree is now shifting to oil and other resources (Bloomberg and Bloomberg again); the military buildup continues (AFP via Google); and the persecutions continue (China Aid and Radio Free Asia).

They even went to the old standby - getting the Korean viceroy to act up and distract everybody, in this case with a test-launch of a missile that can hit the American Pacific Coast (CNN and National Review Online: The Corner).

Why are they doing this? They believe they have no other choice.

The cadres have been relying upon geopolitical power abroad to appease the masses at home for years, ever since the economy-first model resulted in the Tiananmen spring of twenty years ago. For the CCP, radical nationalism is the only card left to play, and they have played it well for nearly two decades.

Unfortunately, the regime is now discovering the awful truth: such a move forces it to really on outsiders for its own survival. So long as said outsiders were buying up Communist-made exports and playing nice with Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, everything was fine.

Now, however, with the recession wiping out the export market and more people in the free world wondering just what the CCP is planning, there is more risk in what the regime is doing. Most Westerners don't notice this because only the economic change has happened for them: governments in Washington, London, Paris, etc., still have the same vague confidence in "engagement" that they did before (while Ottawa maintains its vague skepticism).

In India, however, the change is profound - and much more troubling for the cadres. Nothing in the twenty years spooked the CCP more than India going nuclear in 1998. It turned the largest democracy on earth into a regional military power with an anti-Communist government at the helm. Eleven years later, India has grown to be a full-fledged economic competitor to Beijing as well, while the center-left coalition that ousted the anti-Communist in 1998 is mimicking them (and may lost to them anyway in upcoming elections).

This means the cadres only have one real hope: President Obama. So long as the president extends to the CCP the same olive branch he is trying to extend to nearly every rouge regime and entity the CCP backs, then the cadres can isolate India and still draw on international appeasement to ward off rising anger at home.

I sincerely doubt the cadres will leave their survival to such chance. Therefore, I still expect the satellites to be used to ensure Washington continues to "cooperate" with Zhongnanhai. North Korea's possible missile launch is part of that strategy. We should expect the Iranian mullahcracy to do its part soon.

With job losses now at 20 million and counting, the regime looks for scapegoats

The Chinese Communist Party is literally going back in time. All of the prosperity and "reforms" of the last thirty years have kicked into reverse.

The regime is now being forced to admit that over 20 million jobs have vanished over the last year (BBC). At least three provinces that went from rural backwaters to major commercial hubs - Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu - are now home to "dozens of protests that are never mentioned by the state media" (Sunday Times of London), reminiscent of the tens of millions that took to the streets outside Beijing during the spring of 1989. The cadres blacked out those protests, too.

Guangdong is also finding its modern model of corrupt corporatism under attack from Beijing - not for reasons of modern reform but old-style anti-business Marxism (Financial Post).

Of course, none of these things had to be a harbinger of going back to the future by themselves. What really triggered the way-back machine was how the cadres continue to handle the situation - with pages ripped right out of the Brezhnev playbook.

As more and more ordinary Chinese demand accountability from their Communist leaders, said leaders recycle charges of "slavery" against the Dalai Lama (Hindustan Times) and aim the bloggers' ire at a show-thrower in London (BBC). The usual crackdown against anyone in Tibet who does not approve of the Communist occupation continues apace (Bloomberg). Meanwhile, the cadres have decided the economic crises is a perfect time for a massive investment - in propaganda (Manila Times).

For the most part, the leaders of the rest of the world hasn't noticed this, or is trying to pretend it's not that big of a deal (BBC, Bloomberg, and the Taipei Times). There is, however, one country that may follow (to an extent) the CCP back into the pass - and in a way the regime truly cannot afford: India.

As the CCP continued to juggle its blood-and-circuses act, India's Bharatiya Janata Party - currently the lead opposition party and quite possibly the leader of the next government after elections this spring - railed against the Communist regime for its militarization of Burmese regions bordering India and refusing to accept India's territorial claims east of Kashmir (Calcutta News).

India and the CCP fought a border war forty-five years ago (during which the Kennedy Administration made fairly clear it backed India), and while not even the BJP is willing to go that far, a resurgent anti-Communism in an Indian democracy once again close to Washington has to have Zhongnanhai on edge. While the Soviets managed to limp along, and even score geopolitical gains, until the United States got serious about winning the First Cold War in 1980, the "other" power that concerned Moscow (ironically, the CCP) was presiding over a traumatized people and a flattened economy. India, by contrast, is a vibrant democracy with an economy that was already drawing investment money away from Beijing before the downturn. Should the BJP win the upcoming elections, it would give the CCP a neighboring threat from a political, economic, and military perspective - something not even the United States could be at present.

Unexpected events from places that should have been followed more closely have changed history before. A political sabotage operation by German intelligence in World War I led to the founding of the Soviet Union; Communist Party parliamentary maneuverings - on orders from Moscow - in a chaotic Weimar Republic gave Adolf Hitler the keys to power, a shipyard protest in Poland led to a mass anti-Communist movement that inspired the American electorate - at least in part - to elect Ronald Reagan. If anything, the Indian people electing an anti-Communist government would be a more straightforward cause for change in China than any of the above.

Mr. President, the China file is calling

I don't want to be too hard on President Obama yet. After all, he has been in the Oval Office less than a week. Still, if his first two days are any indication, East Asia will end up on the back burner - the last place it needs to be.

The Chinese Communist Party is facing its worst economic crises since the Cultural Revolution. Economic growth fell below population growth in the last quarter (BBC, CNN, and the Washington Post), and given the cadres' penchant for inflating their statistics, the population may have outgrown the economy for the entire year of 2008. To make matters worse, the consumer benefits that have come to other economies from the fall in oil prices have not appeared, due to Communist-imposed directives to keep oil prices high.

Lest anyone think this is merely a problem for the CCP and the Chinese people, the cadres are already trying to divert attention on this failure by rattling their sabres abroad (much like the Brezhnev-era Soviets did). In addition to the usual propaganda on Tibet (John Batchelor and Radio Free Asia), the regime is continuing to project its ever growing naval power (Japan Times and the Weekly Standard), and the espionage network is alive and well (Agence France Presse via Yahoo). Meanwhile, the rest of the free world continues to be asleep (BBC).

I fear the President's East Asia policy will not be centered around Communist China, but North Korea. If so, Nicholas Eberstadt has a good column on how his (Obama's) predecessor fouled up (Weekly Standard). Still, even Eberstadt missed the CCP's role in making North Korea the "bad cop" and reeling in the concessions (BTW, they're at it again - One Free Korea).

It took almost a year before the CCP managed to get President Bush where they wanted him, and Clinton took a little longer. It would be a shame if the CCP were able to get President Obama where they want him, especially if its driven by the latter's indifference.

Welcome President Obama (and don't let the door hit you on the way in)

In his inaugural address to launch his Administration, President Barack Obama had this to say to the tyrants of the world (BBC):

To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of
dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history.

Clearly, the Chinese Communist Party didn't get the memo. Their actions over the last few days made it abundantly clear that they intend to keep the President's version of "history" at arms length.

In fact, they made sure their fellow countrymen wouldn't even see Obama's statement - a reference to the defeat of Soviet Communism was also left on the cutting-room floor (BBC). Before that, the cadres had the gall to declare March 28 "Serfs Emancipation Day" - a reference to the beginning of their bloody occupation of Tibet. The regime continues to clamp down on any and all dissent, be it based on faith (Epoch Times) or human rights (Epoch Times).

Just in case the new President thought any of this might be a conversation piece, let alone a move to change course and adopt a more anti-Communist foreign policy, the Korean colony announced just before the inauguration that it had weaponized plutonium (CNN) - a move sure to make it the focus of Obama's East Asian team while the Beijing crew returns to their usual duplicitous role as public facilitator and private instigator. Having squeezed almost everything they could out of the last Administration (One Free Korea), Beijing and Pyongyang are well-positioned to start holding the new one up for ransom.

That said (and I do hope the new president is paying attention), all of this aggressive behavior is being done for a reason - to hide the serious damage from the economic slowdown.

Economists are guessing that economic growth in Communist China fell to 6.8% last quarter (Bloomberg), which would be an annual rate below population growth. Unemployment could reach levels not seen 1980. One of the cadres' own professors is talking about job losses of 50 million this year (The Australian).

As one would expect, there is talk once more about reversing the slow upward valuation of the Communist currency and returning to the 1990s devalued peg (Epoch Times) - a move sure to enrage a heavily Democratic Congress already willing to consider putting up barriers to foreign trade. Given the unique nature of the CCP (and yes, that's a euphemism), a currency-corrective tariff has a far better chance of reaching the President's desk over the next two years than over the last fifteen.

What the President will do with it - should it reach him - is another story. With the wife of the friendliest American president Communist China ever had as his Secretary of State, Obama is sure to hear the "engagement" tripe. One can only hope House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will remember her anti-Communism of old and apply pressure in the other direction.

If not, the Obama Administration could go down as merely the extension of the Bush/Clinton reign of error in East Asia, but with far more damaging consequences. Still Barack Obama has been president for all of one day. No one can say for certain what he will do, and in what direction he will go.

That is most likely why the cadres played the Tibet-propaganda and Korea cards so soon: they're looking to influence Obama right out of the gate - no waiting on Hope and Change for them.

Here comes the Anniversary Year

With 2008 now drifting off into history, most Americans are looking forward to the new Administration (including many of its would-be critics; defending George W. Bush can be exhausting work), and the usual challenges that come with any new year. Most of the rest of the planet will likely do the same - albeit with somewhat less interest in the new President.

In the halls of Zhongnanhai, however, 2009 promises to be a tumultuous year of crisis and crackdowns - and that would have been true even without the economic slowdown that has sent foreign investors running for the exits (Wall Street Journal), for this year can best be described as the "Anniversary Year" - the year several milestones in tyrannical history of the Chinese Communist Party are due for remembrance.

In just over two months, things begin with the fiftieth anniversary of the anti-Communist Tibet uprising of 1959. True, some of the pressure building for this year was let loose by last year's brouhaha (which is in no small part why I believe the cadres were determined to instigate something last March), but there is plenty of resentment left in reserve. Add to it the Dalia Lama's determination to link his cause to the greater movement for democracy in China, and the first anniversary could set a very troubling tone for the CCP.

Just over a month later, as April nears its exit and spring really kicks into gear, we'll have a new decade marker - the tenth anniversary of the Falun Gong protest of 1999. That quite but determined demand for religious freedom - followed three months later by the CCP's decision to ban the entire practice - will shine a bright light on Communist persecution for at least three months, and bring even greater attention to the practitioners' plight.

However, before we get to the July ban and the official ten-year demarcation for the Falun Gong War, we'll hit the mother of all anniversaries (pun partially intended) - the twentieth anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre.

Actually, if the Communists are lucky, Tiananmen will only come up in June. More likely, May 2009 will have a long crescendo of memorials to the Tiananmen spring, and the million-plus who made their way to the square to show their disapproval of the corrupt tyranny (if the cadres are really unlucky, the May 1989 protests outside Beijing - which according to some accounts brought out more than 100 million people - will finally be given their due). It will build to the observance of the bloody crackdown itself.

This is the one day the cadres have dreaded, which is why I am still certain they will do anything to shift attention away from it, including giving the silent green light to an Iranian nuclear test just before June begins (lest anyone think I'm being alarmist, let's not forget that Iran's Hamas proxies are now killing Israelis with CCP-made missiles - Epoch Times).

July, as mentioned earlier, will have the Falun Gong War anniversary, but the surprising calendar landmine will come the following month - or, to be precise, on August 8, 2009. This will be the one-year anniversary of the Olympic Opening Ceremonies, a time to remember what the Communists hoped to get out of the Games (more international prestige, more support at home, etc.), and what actually came after them (the economic slowdown, domestic anger at the over-the-top spending on Olympic renovations and land seizures, international questions about corruption in Communist sport programs, etc.). More ominously for the cadres, it will also be the first time for the Chinese people to look back and count the cost of the whole farce.

Before August is out, we will also see the sixtieth anniversary of the occupation of East Turkestan, which in the present global environment is sure to get some attention. While most of it will follow the CCP line in some way, shape, or form, odds are at least a few more journalists (and many more readers) will have their eyes opened to the real situation there.

Compared to that kind of spring and summer, the early fall will be a welcome relief. September 19 will mark five years for Hu Jintao as Chairman of the Central Military Commission (and thus, ruler of the country - more on that later). October 1 will be the sixtieth anniversary of the founding of the "People's Republic of China," which may actually go quite will for the cadres until someone reminds the world just how may Chinese died to satiate the mad whims of the founder.

The final two anniversaries (both in November) will - in different ways - go straight to the heart of the issue: the nature of the CCP regime. The 9th will be the twentieth anniversary of the Berlin Wall's demise. While most of the discussion will center around how Europe is today, I'm sure there will also be plenty of ink spilled and bandwith used about the one Communist behemoth that hasn't fallen yet.

The other November anniversary will be felt much more inside the CCP's realm: the fifth anniversary of the Hanyuan County massacre. It will be a sharp reminder to all who remember it of Hu Jintao's willingness to rely on bullets and blood to maintain "stability."

All in all, the cadres can expect an interesting year. Given the tragic inability of the free world's leaders to understand the stakes of Cold War II, it will likely be a year the regime survives, but it will also add more fuel to the fires of resentment felt by the CCP's greatest victims: the Chinese people. Thus 2009 will bring freedom that much closer to China.

How much closer would that be? As always, only time can tell.

More trouble at home; more trepidation abroad

This past weekend was chuck full of examples of the tragic history of the 1970s returning as Marxian farce.

Much like Leonid Brezhnev seemed to make endless advances around the globe during that decade, so the Chinese Communist Party appears to be reaping gains as the expense of democratic leaders who, frankly, should know better. In Taiwan, President Ma Ying-jeou suddenly reverses himself on Tibet (Taipei Times) while continuing to make nice with the CCP (BBC and CNN). A former leading American diplomat, Richard Holbrooke pretends that the last twenty years never happened (Washington Post), even as the Communist regime looks for better weaponry to stack up against the United States (Strategy Page).

These free world mistakes are based upon a delusion - the delusion being that the Chinese Communist regime is a normal government that is concerned for the Chinese people. In fact, the CCP cares about nothing but itself. Holbrooke himself reveals the error in his Post piece, which fauns over Deng Xiaoping without ever mentioning Deng's role in ordering the Tiananmen Square massacre. This same delusion gripped the "West" during the Brezhnev era.

However, unlike that era, it is far easier for the truth to escape the Communists' clutches. Thus, the crackdown itself not only fails (partially), but it itself becomes the news (The Epoch Times).

More ominously (for the regime), the economy continually refuses to play ball. Exports are tanking (Epoch Times and Newsweek) - and not just for economic reasons (Victoria Times-Colonist). Meanwhile, the regime seems determined to do all of the wrong things (Newsweek and Weekly Standard).

Normally, the Korean colony could be useful in distracting the free world - America in particular - with the nuclear question (One Free Korea and the Washington Post), but even there the script has been lost, as media sources are looking beyond the nuclear weapons issue and to the viceroy's barbaric cruelty (One Free Korea and Washington Post).

All of which may very well pale in comparison to the biggest threat of all, which brings us back to Tibet. After years trying to reach out to Beijing, the Dalai Lama is now trying to reach the Chinese people directly (Epoch Times). This is more than just a sign that Tibet's spiritual leader is increasingly fed up with the regime. It means that he makes it clear he sees China and the Chinese Communist Party as two separate and distinct things.

The regime can not survive that reality being accepted by the Chinese people. This is why they will continue to go after anyone who gives the Dalai Lama an audience (such as New Zealand's new PM - New Zealand Herald).

The irony in all of this is that the Dalai Lama has literally become the "splittist" that the CCP always accused him of being, just not in the way the Communists have meant. Instead, he is creating a much more dangerous fissure (for the Communists), one between the CCP and the Chinese people. Amidst the economic turmoil, he is much more likely to succeed with that separation - and the Communists must stop him at all cost.

You'd think the Dalai Lama took out a subprime mortgage

Over the weekend, the Chinese Communist Party faced an ever-increasing wave of taxicab driver strikes (Epoch Times), a growing wave of foreign bans on their exports (Epoch Times), and another food poison scandal (Epoch Times), on top of the economic slowdown (Time and London Telegraph).

How did the cadres respond? With more repression (BBC and Epoch Times) and fiery criticism of the Dalai Lama. They even called Tibet's spiritual leader "a wolf in monk's clothing and a devil with a human face" (BBC). It's as if he took out a huge subprime loan and then defaulted on it just to cripple the Chinese economy.

Of course, he did no such thing. Nor did he move away from his previous rejection of Tibetan independence. He did make it very clear he prefers a Tibet free from the CCP (Agence France Presse via Yahoo):

When China becomes more democratic, with freedom of speech, with rule of law and
particularly with freedom of the press, . . . once China becomes an open, modern society, then the Tibet issue, I think within a few days, can be solved.

Those are a few days the cadres hope never to see, which at least in part is why the crackdown on Tibet has escalated - again (Radio Free Asia via Epoch Times).

The cadres have been using radical nationalism for years to buttress their regime. Their Korean colony has become so good at this that it can dominate talks on its nuclear ambitions (BBC and CNN) while publicly slamming the one nation that has refused to play its game (Japan - BBC). The "bilateral" talks with South Korea provide more evidence that this nonsense actually works (One Free Korea and Washington Times).

Unfortunately for Beijing, it is the regime's very willingness to prop up Kim Jong-il and his cohorts that allow them this leeway. The Beijing cadres have no such backup. In time, the Chinese people will rise up and take their country back. How much blood and treasure is lost in the interim remains to be seen.

Jonah Goldberg nails it

If I could, I would make Jonah Goldberg's column in National Review Online required reading for the entire blogosphere. As I can't, I'll just highlight the really good parts (but you should still read the whole thing):

Ask yourself this: Why are we in this financial crisis?

Any short list of reasons would include a lack of transparency in markets and regulatory rule-making; collusion between business and government; the politicization of lending practices (including the socialization of risk and the privatization of profit through giant governmental entities like Fannie Mae); and, of course, simple greed.

Does anyone honestly think China doesn’t have these problems ten times over? It has no free press, no democratic accountability, and no truly independent regulators.

After every Chinese earthquake, we discover that safety inspectors couldn’t be trusted to oversee the construction of schools and hospitals. And we’re supposed to believe that China’s corrupt model produces toxic baby formula but spic-and-span finances?

Jonah wrote that as part of his skeptical response to the Communist-China-is-the-future conventional wisdom. I'm guessing he'll hear from a lot of furious emailers telling him how wrong he is, but the cadres themselves know that every word of it is true. Yet the moment they acknowledge this, their facade of strength - upon which they rely for much of their global power - vanishes.

That's why they're insisting on picking fights with the Dalai Lama (Agence France Presse via Yahoo, Epoch Times, and ISN) and overseas opponents (Between Heaven and Earth, Epoch Times, and World Tribune) while merely hinting that something has gone horribly awry (BBC and Bloomberg). If the world is not distracted by the regime's bombast (which can include dramatic offers of "aid" - BBC), they may focus too much on the weakness behind, which despite the aforelinked "warnings," is already here (Epoch Times and Guardian, UK).

For in reality, as Goldberg himself notes:

There’s an honest debate about how much blame institutions like Fannie Mae and laws like the Community Reinvestment Act deserve for the financial crisis, but few honest observers dispute that they played some kind of deleterious role. Well, China’s entire economy is one big Fannie Mae, its laws one big Community Reinvestment Act.

I’m willing to bet that the bill for that comes due long, long, long before China catches up with the United States of America.

That is the cadres' worst nightmare, but every indication shows it's true. Despite Zhongnanhai's best efforts, it has fallen right into the Brezhnev path to oblivion.

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal

Bluster and Balderdash

The Chinese Communist Party decided to do some chest-thumping today.

At an economic meeting with visiting Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Vice Premier Wang Qishan took the time to demand America "stabilise its economy and financial markets and ensure the safety of China's assets and investment in the United States" (Agence France Presse via Yahoo). It's arguably one of the most blunt statements tossed across the Pacific since Mao Zedong's day.

On some level, the cadres have reason to talk tough. Their advances against the island democracy on Taiwan (best detailed by Joseph Wu of the Jamestown Foundation) continue apace, and judging by this sickly Washington Times "special," they're continuing to neutralize some leading conservative constellations in the United States.

Still, one has to wonder if this is more driven by the need to distract attention from the continuing internal turmoil.

William R. Hawkins makes the point brilliantly (ironically, also in the Washington Times):

"China's international standing is based partly on foreigners' calculations that it is 'the country of the future,' " says the NIC (C e-L note: NIC stands for National Intelligence Council). U.S. policy should disabuse the world of this notion.

Indeed, American policy should, but the mess that is mainland China is doing a fairly good job as it is. More ordinary Chinese are suffering under the brutal dictatorship (Epoch Times and more Epoch Times). The melamine fiasco refuses to go away (Epoch Times). Finally, Europe - of all places - refuses to toe the Communist line on Tibet (AFP via Yahoo and BBC), a sure sign that not everyone is overawed by the "country of the future" nonsense.

Odds are we'll get more blunt statements, threats, and the usual tantrums to which dictatorships resort when things are dicey at home. The Soviets went through the same thing in the 1970s and 1980s, but it was much harder for the truth to come out. This time, the truth comes out more easily, but there is less resolve in the Western world to act on it. The Soviets survived due to forced silence at home; the Chinese Communists survive due to intimidated silence abroad.

That must stop.

What Lev Navrazov Means

To be fair, I should actually start with what Lev Navrazov said (World Tribune):

The position of the totalitarian rulers of China is much more difficult, and they are inclined to safeguard themselves not by constitutional evolution of their country, but by the conquest of the rest of the world, to convert its population into their serfs/slaves or annihilate it.

This is the essence of the Chinese Communist Party's plan. If it sounds familiar, it should, because it was also Leonid Brezhnev's plan in the 1970s; in fact, it was going quite well until the United States decided to challenge it.

For the CCP, things look better on the international front - as the U.S. has yet to assume its role from the 1980s. The International Olympic Committee is still insisting the Beijing Games were a wondrous success (Boycott 2008), leading Americans, including retired Admiral William Fallon, are spouting the "engagement" line (International Herald Tribune). Foreign reserves continue to rise (Bloomberg), although there's a lot less there than meets the eye. The cadres can rail about the peaceful resistance in Tibet (McClatchy via Yahoo) without serious repercussions (BBC). The Korean colony seems (for now) to be having some more influence on South Koreans again (BBC). although we should emphasize some (One Free Korea). There is even talk about expanding the shipyards to more international customers (Bloomberg).

Domestically, however, the rot is more obvious than in Brezhnev's time. The economy is in serious trouble (Agence France Presse via Yahoo, BBC, Bloomberg, Business Week, London Telegraph, Washington Post, and the Washington Times), and corruption has reached the highest of its "entrepreneurs" (BBC and Epoch Times). Given the oncoming economic downturn, these could do far more damage than in the Brezhnev era.

For starters, economic development and radical nationalism were all the cadres had once Deng Xiaoping decided to steer clear of the Brezhnev path. While the former lost much of its luster after the Tiananmen massacre, a white-hot economy still enabled the cadres to keep the elite happy - especially local cadres in the rural interior for whom ill-gotten gains were simply a regular benefit of the job.

This enabled the regime to continue to get away with brutality toward its own people (BBC, Boycott 2008, Epoch Times, and the Washington Post). Now, with even Hong Kong coming under economic strain, the de facto buying off the elite could run aground (Washington Post). The truth about the anti-Chinese nature of the CCP (Epoch Times) will only make things worse (for the cadres).

Finally, even if the United States were to avoid becoming the anti-Communist leader Beijing fears, there's no guarantee India won't - especially if there's even a tenuous link between the terrorists who attacked Mumbai this weekend and the Communists' longtime ally Pakistan.

Thus, like the Soviets before them, the Chinese Communists are forced to subdue the rest of the world to prevent being subdued at home. The democratic world must not forget this. One day China will be free. The question is, how much blood and treasure will be spilled in the interim?

They found their target

So it appears the Chinese Communist Party has finally figured out how to solve its Brezhnev-redux problem.

Take steps to fix an economy busted by decades of corruption and manipulation (Epoch Times)? Of course not.

Reach out to the disaffected masses (Epoch Times)? No dice, save for an embarrassingly faked propaganda moment (Washington Post).

Take aim at the corruption that has literally poisoned the Chinese economy - domestically and internationally (Epoch Times)? You're joking, right?

Reign in the Korean colony? Why should Beijing mess with success (CNN, CNN again, One Free Korea, more One Free Korea, and the Washington Times)?

Face up to their brutal history as occupiers of Tibet (BBC and CNN) and East Turkestan - the latter of which has become so horrid that even your fellow occupying cadres have had enough (Epoch Times)? Try again.

Rethink their treatment of their own people, including following a UN panel's recommendation to look into the Falun Gong organ-harvesting outrage (Epoch Times). In a word: no.

Instead, the Communists have decided that their silver bullet for all of the above maladies is . . . to launch a rhetorical broadside against Axl Rose (Between Heaven and Earth and the London Telegraph) because he wrote an anti-Communist song - the title track for Chinese Democracy.

On one level, the absurdity of going after a song in the face of, well, everything else is comical, especially considering the Rose and his Guns 'N' Roses band's sails lost the Zeitgeist years ago. Then again, the CCP remains the entity that accidentally performed the heretofore impossible task of restoring the reputation of the Prince of Wales.

However, this is one regime that understands the sword's weaknesses against the pen. It's why they have stretched the Long Arm of Lawlessness out to smack NTDTV (Epoch Times), bury the unpleasant aspects of its history whenever and wherever possible (Weekly Standard), etc.

Trouble is, for all their efforts, the regime's true face keeps being seen (San Francisco Chronicle and the USCC), such that even their success in Taiwan (Epoch Times) comes with caveats (Washington Times).

In short, the cadres are exactly where the Soviets were thirty years ago, with an economy and social structure rotting away, and international acceptance just outside its reach - exactly where they did not wish to be.

Yet they refuse to do what the very few surviving European Communist parties (Hungary and Bulgaria, mostly) have done: namely abdicate power, admit to their mistakes, and take their chances on the electorate. So the economy and society will continue to decay; an aging rock band gets an unintentional boost to its career; and the clock continues to wind down on the Chinese Communist Party.

Here we go again

Hu Jintao, the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, continues to show us that the Russian translation of his name is Leonid Brezhnev.

Outwardly, the CCP is all ambition and repression. The alarming and horrifying expose by Ethan Guttman (f.d., friend of the C e-L since 2004) about the organ harvesting of religious dissidents (Weekly Standard) is sure to get the usual dismissals, cat-calls, and opprobrium. Never mind that similar tales of Soviet abominations (ecological nightmares, the Katyn massacre, and millions upon millions of Red Army rapes in occupied Eastern Europe, to name a few) were similarly dismissed with haughty laughter, only to be horrifyingly confirmed as European Communism collapsed. For the CCP, it's all about being the indispensable part of the global economy (Epoch Times and Washington Post), building aircraft carriers (BBC), maneuvering the Korean colony to win more concessions and praise for Beijing (One Free Korea and the Washington Times), and feting celebrities (Boycott 2008).

Still, while the rule of Western naivete in the face of Communist dishonesty still holds firm on the organ harvesting issue, exceptions are starting to pop up all over the place.

For starters, the half-trillion-dollar-plus "rescue package" that was supposed to symbolize the CCP's arrival as a global economic powerhouse is coming under more scrutiny - never a good thing for the cadres. In fact, according to the Washington Times, "the central government would only be coughing up a quarter of the money, with the rest coming from local governments and state-owned enterprises." In other words, the Communists are expecting the local robber-barons to fix their own messes - the very messes said robber-barons created with land seizures and rampant corruption. Moreover, there's hardly any "new" action in the plan: "Some international experts who specialize in Chinese economics believe that over 60% of the projects in its rescue package plan are just recycled ideas given a new title" (Epoch Times).

Once again, as Beijing repeats Moscow's old fantasies, China repeats the old USSR's painful realities - over 66,000 factories shut down in the last six months (Epoch Times), and there's plenty more where that came from (Epoch Times).

Meanwhile, the melamine poison scandal has been joined by other food poisons: clenbuterol and formaldehyde (Epoch Times), and the regime's lead soccer league has become so corrupt it was taken off the TV (BBC).

All of this was merely in China proper. Occupied Tibet may become a much trickier file (BBC and CNN), and even long-time ally Pakistan is becoming a headache - albeit for vastly different reasons (Epoch Times).

So there's plenty of things to keep the regime busy, but instead, the cadres continue to focus on imprisoning dissidents (Between Heaven and Earth and the Epoch Times), intimidating overseas Chinese communities (Epoch Times), and enjoying the fall of political enemies abroad (BBC and CNN).

In other words, the tragedy of Eastern Europe's degradation during the Brezhnev era has indeed been reborn as the farce of Beijing - except that the Chinese people aren't laughing.

More trouble for the CCP

The news and events continue to pour in - or to be more precise, pour down upon the Chinese Communist Party. The regime is clearly in a "rough patch," as it were.

The extent of the economic slowdown is becoming unavoidable; the coal and coke industry appear to be in a full-fledged recession (Epoch Times) - a word that strikes terror in the heart of a regime that needs economic growth of at least 7% just to keep up with the population. It might also explain the impetus behind the massive "economic stimulus" (Epoch Times) the cadres announced over the weekend, although the success of that plan is debatable, at best. More likely, it will simply mean more incentives for the cadres to steal land and build useless factories while the economy sinks beneath the waves (Epoch Times) and the ecology worsens (EnGadget).

Meanwhile, Tibet continues to be a headache (Epoch Times), and worse, India's center-left government appears to have finally gotten wise about the danger from Beijing (Epoch Times).

The cadres will do their best to ignore all of this, and choose instead to continue expanding their influence abroad (Epoch Times), crush dissent at home (Boycott 2008 and Epoch Times), use the Korean colony to maximum effect (BBC and Newsmax), and enjoy some Taiwanese schadenfreude (BBC, CNN, and the Washington Times). Those who remember the First Cold War will remember this phase of Communism well: the Brezhnev phase.

Leonid Brezhnev's solution for the problems faced by the Soviet Union - ignore them and increase the aggressive behavior abroad - worked so well that the USSR couldn't outlast him by as much as a decade, even though no American President seriously challenged his regime until just before he died. That should bring hope to all anti-Communists. Even if Obama becomes the "second Carter" his critics fear he will be, Hu Jintao seems determined to be the second Brezhnev.

Bismark is reported to have said, "God has a special providence for fools, drunks, and the United States of America." He continues to be more right than he could have possibly imagined.

Trouble on the horizon for the CCP

Over the weekend, we discovered once and for all what a disaster the 2008 Beijing Olympics really were for the Communist regime. The reason, however, was not an expected one. The Washington Post, in their analysis of the melamine poison scandal, unearthed the surprising fact that essentially wiped out all the benefits of the summer propaganda exercise (emphasis added):

Initially covered up by officials afraid of losing their jobs and besmirching the Beijing Olympic Games, the melamine contamination scandal began with infant milk formula that killed at least four infants and sickened 54,000 babies. It soon spread to candy, instant coffee, yogurt, biscuits and other products made with Chinese milk, prompting bans or recalls in 16 countries.

In recent weeks the toxin has been discovered in eggs and in animal feed, sparking fears that tainted foods go well beyond dairy products and may include fish, shrimp, beef and poultry.

So it turns out that fear of "besmirching the Beijing Olympic Games" led in part to the greatest international embarrassment for the Chinese Communist Party in nineteen years.

Oops.

Under normal circumstances, this would be bad enough, but the regime is going through anything but normal times.

For starters, we have the oncoming recession, the first serious one since the regime become the export maven for which it was famous just months ago (and is now infamous, see above). The cadres are responding the only way they know how, with more infrastructure projects that will do little or nothing for the overall economy (Washington Post). When this fails, as I suspect it will, the regime will be up a serious creek - one that will be far more beneficial for the rest of the world than even it realizes, as One Free Korea notes. When even the Potemkin city of Shenzhen is hosting anti-police riots (BBC), there is serious trouble afoot.

The melamine and economic crises also come just as the rest of the world has decided to stop giving the Communists so much slack over festering problems that refuse to simply go away. The regime's insistence that the "developed world" cover the cost of greenhouse-gas reduction rings quite hollow now that Communist China is the leading carbon emitter (Washington Times).

True, Taiwan is becoming much more cooperative under President Ma Ying-jeou (Washington Times), but the cadres barely had time to enjoy that before the Dalai Lama made it clear he would listen more to his people and take a tougher line on occupied Tibet (BBC and CNN).

Even the Korean colony, fresh off its spectacular slaying of the Bush Administration, is causing more trouble with its abductions of Japanese citizens returning to the news (BBC).

As January approaches, it becomes clear the Chinese Communist regime will need willing dupes in Washington and elsewhere in the free world as never before. Here's hoping the President-elect refuses to be one of them.

The view from abroad

So long as the Chinese Communist regime refuses to submit itself to the will of the people (in other words, for as long as it continues to exist), it will need to rely on the approval of foreign leaders to enhance its own reputation and pretend it is making China "respectable" (in fact, the only thing not respectable about China is the CCP, but that's for another day).

From that perspective, today was a bad day for the Communists.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced his new cabinet, and it was much improved from his last one. The move that most especially please me was Stockwell Day going to the Ministry of International Trade (Steven Taylor). To have a dedicated anti-Communist in this position is a genuine coup; that the Asia-Pacific Gateway was added to his portfolio is an unexpected bonus.

Meanwhile, the Dalai Lama, Tibet's spiritual leader, greeted the news that the CCP wants more talks with him by hinting he might allow full independence for his occupied homeland to be part of his agenda (BBC). Clearly the Korea colony's wildly successful use of threats to get what it wants (One Free Korea) rubbed off in a way Beijing did not expect.

Not that they've learned anything from it, given their saber-rattling on global warming (BBC).

Meanwhile, the American election hasn't focused on Communist China much (Washington Times), but more attention is being paid to the cadres' ambitions in the Caribbean (Times again).

Finally there is - or is supposed to be - the world financial crisis, and the Communists' chance to stride the world stage and help alleviate it. That may not be in the cards, though, given their own economic straits (Epoch Times) and the continuing melamine fall-out (BBC).

Clearly, anti-Communism was on the march today. Whether it stays there will likely be up to the Tibetan monk and the Trade Minister.

The latest Communist propaganda effort falls flat

The Chinese Communist Party's much-hyped "land reform" did not get the reception for which the cadres were hoping (Washington Post):

. . . here in the rice-and-corn-growing region of Guangdong province, where tensions are still running high weeks after the protest, farmers say the changes do not address their main grievance: corruption, much of it directed by local party officials far below the radar of the central government in Beijing.

"I don't think this will give us more protection," said a farmer in the village of Xianyi, two hours' drive from Hebu, who gave his surname as Li. "We have no expectations. We just hope the government will not further take away our land, because we live on the land. If it's sold, we will lose our livelihoods."

In fact, illegal land seizures by cadres looking to profit from development - the biggest corruption issue in the farming areas - was left completely unaddressed by the "reform." In fact, lack of accountability for corruption is still the hallmark of CCP "governing" - even as the most visible example, the export poison fiasco, continues to spread in North America (Epoch Times).

Meanwhile, in another place far away from the Potemkin cities, cadres used police to silence concerned parents upset at a school teacher's harassment of their daughter (she was driven to suicide). The heavy-handed tactics brought 10,000 into the streets of Suqian, Jiangsu (Epoch Times).

Even outsiders are getting wise to the Communists' game. Leading IT firms are reaching out to human rights activists to create a framework for protecting online speech (Boycott 2008), and South Korea and Mongolia continue to side with those persecuted by the colonial viceroy (One Free Korea).

How do I know the cadres are really going through a rough patch? They're dropping hints about talks with the Dalai Lama again (BBC and CNN), which they only do when they're looking for some quick positive publicity on the cheap . . .

. . . the sort of thing they thought they would get with the land reform.