With 2008 now drifting off into history, most Americans are looking forward to the new Administration (including many of its would-be critics; defending George W. Bush can be exhausting work), and the usual challenges that come with any new year. Most of the rest of the planet will likely do the same - albeit with somewhat less interest in the new President.
In the halls of Zhongnanhai, however, 2009 promises to be a tumultuous year of crisis and crackdowns - and that would have been true even without the economic slowdown that has sent foreign investors running for the exits (Wall Street Journal), for this year can best be described as the "Anniversary Year" - the year several milestones in tyrannical history of the Chinese Communist Party are due for remembrance.
In just over two months, things begin with the fiftieth anniversary of the anti-Communist Tibet uprising of 1959. True, some of the pressure building for this year was let loose by last year's brouhaha (which is in no small part why I believe the cadres were determined to instigate something last March), but there is plenty of resentment left in reserve. Add to it the Dalia Lama's determination to link his cause to the greater movement for democracy in China, and the first anniversary could set a very troubling tone for the CCP.
Just over a month later, as April nears its exit and spring really kicks into gear, we'll have a new decade marker - the tenth anniversary of the Falun Gong protest of 1999. That quite but determined demand for religious freedom - followed three months later by the CCP's decision to ban the entire practice - will shine a bright light on Communist persecution for at least three months, and bring even greater attention to the practitioners' plight.
However, before we get to the July ban and the official ten-year demarcation for the Falun Gong War, we'll hit the mother of all anniversaries (pun partially intended) - the twentieth anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre.
Actually, if the Communists are lucky, Tiananmen will only come up in June. More likely, May 2009 will have a long crescendo of memorials to the Tiananmen spring, and the million-plus who made their way to the square to show their disapproval of the corrupt tyranny (if the cadres are really unlucky, the May 1989 protests outside Beijing - which according to some accounts brought out more than 100 million people - will finally be given their due). It will build to the observance of the bloody crackdown itself.
This is the one day the cadres have dreaded, which is why I am still certain they will do anything to shift attention away from it, including giving the silent green light to an Iranian nuclear test just before June begins (lest anyone think I'm being alarmist, let's not forget that Iran's Hamas proxies are now killing Israelis with CCP-made missiles - Epoch Times).
July, as mentioned earlier, will have the Falun Gong War anniversary, but the surprising calendar landmine will come the following month - or, to be precise, on August 8, 2009. This will be the one-year anniversary of the Olympic Opening Ceremonies, a time to remember what the Communists hoped to get out of the Games (more international prestige, more support at home, etc.), and what actually came after them (the economic slowdown, domestic anger at the over-the-top spending on Olympic renovations and land seizures, international questions about corruption in Communist sport programs, etc.). More ominously for the cadres, it will also be the first time for the Chinese people to look back and count the cost of the whole farce.
Before August is out, we will also see the sixtieth anniversary of the occupation of East Turkestan, which in the present global environment is sure to get some attention. While most of it will follow the CCP line in some way, shape, or form, odds are at least a few more journalists (and many more readers) will have their eyes opened to the real situation there.
Compared to that kind of spring and summer, the early fall will be a welcome relief. September 19 will mark five years for Hu Jintao as Chairman of the Central Military Commission (and thus, ruler of the country - more on that later). October 1 will be the sixtieth anniversary of the founding of the "People's Republic of China," which may actually go quite will for the cadres until someone reminds the world just how may Chinese died to satiate the mad whims of the founder.
The final two anniversaries (both in November) will - in different ways - go straight to the heart of the issue: the nature of the CCP regime. The 9th will be the twentieth anniversary of the Berlin Wall's demise. While most of the discussion will center around how Europe is today, I'm sure there will also be plenty of ink spilled and bandwith used about the one Communist behemoth that hasn't fallen yet.
The other November anniversary will be felt much more inside the CCP's realm: the fifth anniversary of the Hanyuan County massacre. It will be a sharp reminder to all who remember it of Hu Jintao's willingness to rely on bullets and blood to maintain "stability."
All in all, the cadres can expect an interesting year. Given the tragic inability of the free world's leaders to understand the stakes of Cold War II, it will likely be a year the regime survives, but it will also add more fuel to the fires of resentment felt by the CCP's greatest victims: the Chinese people. Thus 2009 will bring freedom that much closer to China.
How much closer would that be? As always, only time can tell.
Showing posts with label Olympics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Olympics. Show all posts
Friday, January 02, 2009
Monday, November 10, 2008
Trouble on the horizon for the CCP
Over the weekend, we discovered once and for all what a disaster the 2008 Beijing Olympics really were for the Communist regime. The reason, however, was not an expected one. The Washington Post, in their analysis of the melamine poison scandal, unearthed the surprising fact that essentially wiped out all the benefits of the summer propaganda exercise (emphasis added):
So it turns out that fear of "besmirching the Beijing Olympic Games" led in part to the greatest international embarrassment for the Chinese Communist Party in nineteen years.
Oops.
Under normal circumstances, this would be bad enough, but the regime is going through anything but normal times.
For starters, we have the oncoming recession, the first serious one since the regime become the export maven for which it was famous just months ago (and is now infamous, see above). The cadres are responding the only way they know how, with more infrastructure projects that will do little or nothing for the overall economy (Washington Post). When this fails, as I suspect it will, the regime will be up a serious creek - one that will be far more beneficial for the rest of the world than even it realizes, as One Free Korea notes. When even the Potemkin city of Shenzhen is hosting anti-police riots (BBC), there is serious trouble afoot.
The melamine and economic crises also come just as the rest of the world has decided to stop giving the Communists so much slack over festering problems that refuse to simply go away. The regime's insistence that the "developed world" cover the cost of greenhouse-gas reduction rings quite hollow now that Communist China is the leading carbon emitter (Washington Times).
True, Taiwan is becoming much more cooperative under President Ma Ying-jeou (Washington Times), but the cadres barely had time to enjoy that before the Dalai Lama made it clear he would listen more to his people and take a tougher line on occupied Tibet (BBC and CNN).
Even the Korean colony, fresh off its spectacular slaying of the Bush Administration, is causing more trouble with its abductions of Japanese citizens returning to the news (BBC).
As January approaches, it becomes clear the Chinese Communist regime will need willing dupes in Washington and elsewhere in the free world as never before. Here's hoping the President-elect refuses to be one of them.
Initially covered up by officials afraid of losing their jobs and besmirching the Beijing Olympic Games, the melamine contamination scandal began with infant milk formula that killed at least four infants and sickened 54,000 babies. It soon spread to candy, instant coffee, yogurt, biscuits and other products made with Chinese milk, prompting bans or recalls in 16 countries.
In recent weeks the toxin has been discovered in eggs and in animal feed, sparking fears that tainted foods go well beyond dairy products and may include fish, shrimp, beef and poultry.
So it turns out that fear of "besmirching the Beijing Olympic Games" led in part to the greatest international embarrassment for the Chinese Communist Party in nineteen years.
Oops.
Under normal circumstances, this would be bad enough, but the regime is going through anything but normal times.
For starters, we have the oncoming recession, the first serious one since the regime become the export maven for which it was famous just months ago (and is now infamous, see above). The cadres are responding the only way they know how, with more infrastructure projects that will do little or nothing for the overall economy (Washington Post). When this fails, as I suspect it will, the regime will be up a serious creek - one that will be far more beneficial for the rest of the world than even it realizes, as One Free Korea notes. When even the Potemkin city of Shenzhen is hosting anti-police riots (BBC), there is serious trouble afoot.
The melamine and economic crises also come just as the rest of the world has decided to stop giving the Communists so much slack over festering problems that refuse to simply go away. The regime's insistence that the "developed world" cover the cost of greenhouse-gas reduction rings quite hollow now that Communist China is the leading carbon emitter (Washington Times).
True, Taiwan is becoming much more cooperative under President Ma Ying-jeou (Washington Times), but the cadres barely had time to enjoy that before the Dalai Lama made it clear he would listen more to his people and take a tougher line on occupied Tibet (BBC and CNN).
Even the Korean colony, fresh off its spectacular slaying of the Bush Administration, is causing more trouble with its abductions of Japanese citizens returning to the news (BBC).
As January approaches, it becomes clear the Chinese Communist regime will need willing dupes in Washington and elsewhere in the free world as never before. Here's hoping the President-elect refuses to be one of them.
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
CCP's plans continue to go awry
As the Communist export scandal grows again (thanks to lead-contaminated candy in California - Sacramento Bee via Boycott 2008), we're finding that this is not the only thing the Communists have touched that is turning to lead these days.
Remember the Olympics? They were supposed to be the great propaganda event of the young century for the Chinese Communist Party. Instead, the Communist Olympiad has upset the Nobel Committee so much it may award the Nobel Peace Prize to Hu Jia or Gao Zhisheng (BBC and Boycott 2008). The former would bring back to light the regime's brutal treatment of AIDS victims (especially in Henan), while the latter would bring the persecution of Falun Gong back into focus (Between Heaven and Earth and Boycott 2008).
Remember the election of Ma Ying-Jeou to the Taiwanese Presidency? It was supposed to usher in a new era of "cooperation" between Beijing and Taipei. Instead, Taiwan is buying American weapons (Washington Times) and its National Security Bureau Director is accusing the cadres of weaponizing SARS (Taipei Times).
How do the cadres respond? They cancel all military contacts with the United States (BBC and CNN), effectively rewarding anti-Communists in the process.
Once again, we are seeing the fundamental weakness of dictatorial regimes, as explained by John Lewis Gaddis (We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History), "who is about to tell the authoritarian in charge when he is about to do something stupid?"
Remember the Olympics? They were supposed to be the great propaganda event of the young century for the Chinese Communist Party. Instead, the Communist Olympiad has upset the Nobel Committee so much it may award the Nobel Peace Prize to Hu Jia or Gao Zhisheng (BBC and Boycott 2008). The former would bring back to light the regime's brutal treatment of AIDS victims (especially in Henan), while the latter would bring the persecution of Falun Gong back into focus (Between Heaven and Earth and Boycott 2008).
Remember the election of Ma Ying-Jeou to the Taiwanese Presidency? It was supposed to usher in a new era of "cooperation" between Beijing and Taipei. Instead, Taiwan is buying American weapons (Washington Times) and its National Security Bureau Director is accusing the cadres of weaponizing SARS (Taipei Times).
How do the cadres respond? They cancel all military contacts with the United States (BBC and CNN), effectively rewarding anti-Communists in the process.
Once again, we are seeing the fundamental weakness of dictatorial regimes, as explained by John Lewis Gaddis (We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History), "who is about to tell the authoritarian in charge when he is about to do something stupid?"
Friday, September 12, 2008
Obama's mistake
Just over a month ago, I took strong issue with John McCain's understated optimism about relations with Communist China. I'm still worried about that (although I have since been sold on his Russia viewpoint). It should be noted that the Democratic nominee is no better (World Net Daily):
Now, truth be told, I almost chose to ignore WND's rehash of this (after all, the statement itself was not new), but the more I thought of it, the more ridiculous the statement was.
For starters, as we are now seeing (BBC), the cadres had to go to extraordinary lengths to make Beijing look as wonderful as Obama said it was, but the real picture is very different even in the city, to say nothing of the rest of Communist China.
Of course, this is not just Obama's error; treating the Chinese Communist Party like its "normal" is an affliction in much of the democratic world (Epoch Times). Unfortunately, stuff like this makes it more likely that Obama will drink the Kool-Aid on the CCP and ignore its long and deep ties to terrorism , including Beijing's Korean colony (One Free Korea and the Washington Times) - an issue about which McCain has at least shown some skepticism.
I have said this repeatedly, but here goes (again); the party that embraces anti-Communism will become the majority party for the next generation. Sadly, we appear to have gone through another election cycle in which neither major party has figured that out.
During the Games, Obama observed: "Everybody's watching what's going on in
Beijing right now with the Olympics. Think about the amount of money that China has spent on infrastructure. Their ports, their train systems, their airports are vastly superior to us now, which means if you are a corporation deciding where to do business, you're starting to think, 'Beijing looks like a pretty good option.'"
Now, truth be told, I almost chose to ignore WND's rehash of this (after all, the statement itself was not new), but the more I thought of it, the more ridiculous the statement was.
For starters, as we are now seeing (BBC), the cadres had to go to extraordinary lengths to make Beijing look as wonderful as Obama said it was, but the real picture is very different even in the city, to say nothing of the rest of Communist China.
Of course, this is not just Obama's error; treating the Chinese Communist Party like its "normal" is an affliction in much of the democratic world (Epoch Times). Unfortunately, stuff like this makes it more likely that Obama will drink the Kool-Aid on the CCP and ignore its long and deep ties to terrorism , including Beijing's Korean colony (One Free Korea and the Washington Times) - an issue about which McCain has at least shown some skepticism.
I have said this repeatedly, but here goes (again); the party that embraces anti-Communism will become the majority party for the next generation. Sadly, we appear to have gone through another election cycle in which neither major party has figured that out.
Monday, September 08, 2008
Hong Kong and the Beijing bounceback
Here in the United States, talk of a "bounce" was centered on the Republican and Democratic conventions. In Hong Kong, however, it was a "Beijing bounce" that overawed the political culture. In theory, a surge of "patriotism" from the Communist Olympiad would lead to smashing pro-Beijing victories in Hong Kong's Legislative Council (half the seats are elected by the people, the other half by "functional constituencies," i.e., group designed to ensure a pro-Communist majority).
However, like nearly everything else about the Games, the intended effect was nowhere to be found (BBC). Pro-democracy candidates won 60% of the vote (again - BBC) a majority of the elected seats (again), and even took a couple of the functionals (again). The result was so shocking that the city had its own Dewey-defeats-Truman moment, courtesy of the Hong Kong Standard. So, here, even in a city under Communist control with limited liberty, the Communists' Olympic game plan went awry.
Things have been no better outside Communist China. Japan is still concerned over the Communist military (Japan Times); Communist espionage in Canada continues to be front-page news (Ottawa Citizen) and Europe (London Telegraph); businesses around the world are having second thoughts about using Communist China as an export platform (Washington Post); the Long Arm of Lawlessness continues to rankle in New York (Epoch Times); and even the Communists' claim to Taiwan was turned against them by Congressman Elton Gallegly, who cleverly used it to demand the regime make good on $260 billion in Nationalist Chinese debt (Washington Times).
Even elsewhere inside Communist China, things are less than what the cadres had expected: protests in Hunan (Epoch Times), a Paralympiad that merely highlights how terrible the regime treats the disabled (Radio Free Asia via Epoch Times and the Washington Post), Sichuan earthquake victims demanding to know what happened to aid promised them (Sound of Hope via Epoch Times), soaring inflation (Epoch Times), and a teenage girl beaten by police (Epoch Times).
About all the Communists can do is declare war on the German press (Epoch Times) and try to divert attention to its space program (BBC), although the Korean colony had a good weekend (One Free Korea).
Still, the big news is in the former British colony. The Communists have now had over a decade to try and wear down and overwhelm the Hong Kong democrats - once united as the Democratic Party and now split among several parties. Yet the regime has always failed. This was their best chance. They had the urbane Donald Tsang as Chief Executive instead of the deeply unpopular Tung Chee-hwa; they had years of building goodwill with democratic nations that should know better; and, of course, they had the Olympics.
In the end, though, it got them nothing in Hong Kong. The voters refused to be seduced by Tsang, or the Games, or anything else. In the one place where democracy was allowed to live - for the express purpose of dying so the Communists could showcase the body to the rest of China - it has continued to survive because the people of Hong Kong refuse to let it expire.
The people of Hong Kong have shown uncommon bravery, compassion, and concern for their fellow man at the ballot box. They live a quiet heroism the cadres fear, and the free world must not ignore (including certain bloggers who usually focus on rural unrest).
However, like nearly everything else about the Games, the intended effect was nowhere to be found (BBC). Pro-democracy candidates won 60% of the vote (again - BBC) a majority of the elected seats (again), and even took a couple of the functionals (again). The result was so shocking that the city had its own Dewey-defeats-Truman moment, courtesy of the Hong Kong Standard. So, here, even in a city under Communist control with limited liberty, the Communists' Olympic game plan went awry.
Things have been no better outside Communist China. Japan is still concerned over the Communist military (Japan Times); Communist espionage in Canada continues to be front-page news (Ottawa Citizen) and Europe (London Telegraph); businesses around the world are having second thoughts about using Communist China as an export platform (Washington Post); the Long Arm of Lawlessness continues to rankle in New York (Epoch Times); and even the Communists' claim to Taiwan was turned against them by Congressman Elton Gallegly, who cleverly used it to demand the regime make good on $260 billion in Nationalist Chinese debt (Washington Times).
Even elsewhere inside Communist China, things are less than what the cadres had expected: protests in Hunan (Epoch Times), a Paralympiad that merely highlights how terrible the regime treats the disabled (Radio Free Asia via Epoch Times and the Washington Post), Sichuan earthquake victims demanding to know what happened to aid promised them (Sound of Hope via Epoch Times), soaring inflation (Epoch Times), and a teenage girl beaten by police (Epoch Times).
About all the Communists can do is declare war on the German press (Epoch Times) and try to divert attention to its space program (BBC), although the Korean colony had a good weekend (One Free Korea).
Still, the big news is in the former British colony. The Communists have now had over a decade to try and wear down and overwhelm the Hong Kong democrats - once united as the Democratic Party and now split among several parties. Yet the regime has always failed. This was their best chance. They had the urbane Donald Tsang as Chief Executive instead of the deeply unpopular Tung Chee-hwa; they had years of building goodwill with democratic nations that should know better; and, of course, they had the Olympics.
In the end, though, it got them nothing in Hong Kong. The voters refused to be seduced by Tsang, or the Games, or anything else. In the one place where democracy was allowed to live - for the express purpose of dying so the Communists could showcase the body to the rest of China - it has continued to survive because the people of Hong Kong refuse to let it expire.
The people of Hong Kong have shown uncommon bravery, compassion, and concern for their fellow man at the ballot box. They live a quiet heroism the cadres fear, and the free world must not ignore (including certain bloggers who usually focus on rural unrest).
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
The more things change . . .
The latest post-Olympic propaganda harvest watch for the Chinese Communist Party reveals more barren fields.
In Canada, the CCP's best friend in Cabinet announces his retirement (CTV - this, incidentally, all but clears the way for yours truly to make an endorsement in the upcoming Canadian elections). Within Communist China, the income gap between the connected denizens of the city and the put-upon peasants of the countryside continue to grow (Epoch Times) - and, of course, another journalist arrest (Epoch Times). Meanwhile, the regime has once again grown cozy with its Korean colony (BBC), just as Kim Jong-il decides to thumb his nose at the free world once more (BBC and CNN) amidst the continuing starvation of the people of northern Korea (One Free Korea).
Less than a month after the supposedly transformative Games ended, we're bak to business as usual.
In Canada, the CCP's best friend in Cabinet announces his retirement (CTV - this, incidentally, all but clears the way for yours truly to make an endorsement in the upcoming Canadian elections). Within Communist China, the income gap between the connected denizens of the city and the put-upon peasants of the countryside continue to grow (Epoch Times) - and, of course, another journalist arrest (Epoch Times). Meanwhile, the regime has once again grown cozy with its Korean colony (BBC), just as Kim Jong-il decides to thumb his nose at the free world once more (BBC and CNN) amidst the continuing starvation of the people of northern Korea (One Free Korea).
Less than a month after the supposedly transformative Games ended, we're bak to business as usual.
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
CCP's neighbors are moving away from it
One would suspect that if the Communist Olympiad were as successful as the cadres claim it was, it would have an impact in foreign affairs, i.e., pro-"engagement" politicians would be basking in the glow while more hard-line leaders would be lowering their profile.
That's not what we see in the neighborhood, though.
In Japan, Beijing's best friend in the region stepped down as Prime Minister - due to widespread unpopularity (CNN and Washington Post). It's possible that the now-ex-PM's policies did not match well with the news of poisoned dumplings exported from Communist China to Japan (Epoch Times). In any event, the most likely successor is long-time anti-Communist Taro Aso (BBC and One Free Korea), which would mean a sea change in Japan's relations with the CCP. His counterpart in Taiwan (President Ma Ying-jeou) had several thousand anti-Communists show up on his front door this weekend demanding he stop tacking toward Beijing (BBC). Even local-level "engagement" backers like the Mayor of Vancouver are taking it on the rhetorical chin (Boycott 2008).
Meanwhile, in South Korea, President Lee Myung-bak is taking in more refugees from the Communists' Korean colony (One Free Korea), despite more bluster from said colony (OFK).
What happened? Why are the anti-Communists ascendant after the Communists' great propaganda bonanza?
Well, perhaps it wasn't really a bonanza after all (and I'm happy to see Grit Hartman agree with me - Epoch Times), and the post-mortems (literally in some cases - Boycott 2008) are only making matters worse. Besides the pre-Olympic murder in the aforementioned link, we have an entire family imprisoned because one man protested during the Games (Washington Post) and lingering anger in Taiwan about the "Chinese Taipei" label (Epoch Times - this may in part explain the anti-Ma protest). The 2008 Games are so tarnished that London City Councillor felt safe criticizing the athletes who participated (Boycott 2008).
Thus, without the Olympic "bounce," the cadres were stuck with reports of corruption in the billions of dollars (Epoch Times), environmental protests (Epoch Times), international support for Gao Zhisheng (Epoch Times and Boycott 2008), criticism of the brutal occupation of East Turkestan (Epoch Times), nationalist anger at the border treaty with Russia (Epoch Times), and nervousness from the rest of the world about the regime's geopolitical objectives (The Australian and Boycott 2008).
As if that weren't bad enough, the lawsuit against regime-owned Bank of China for facilitating Hamas financing continued to get more press (NTDTV and Pajamas Media).
Given all of this, it shouldn't surprise anyone that those who would coddle up to the regime are resigning or facing criticism. The only surprise may be that the post-Olympic hangover is coming much quicker than expected, if only because few of us new the Olympics themselves would be such a bust.
That's not what we see in the neighborhood, though.
In Japan, Beijing's best friend in the region stepped down as Prime Minister - due to widespread unpopularity (CNN and Washington Post). It's possible that the now-ex-PM's policies did not match well with the news of poisoned dumplings exported from Communist China to Japan (Epoch Times). In any event, the most likely successor is long-time anti-Communist Taro Aso (BBC and One Free Korea), which would mean a sea change in Japan's relations with the CCP. His counterpart in Taiwan (President Ma Ying-jeou) had several thousand anti-Communists show up on his front door this weekend demanding he stop tacking toward Beijing (BBC). Even local-level "engagement" backers like the Mayor of Vancouver are taking it on the rhetorical chin (Boycott 2008).
Meanwhile, in South Korea, President Lee Myung-bak is taking in more refugees from the Communists' Korean colony (One Free Korea), despite more bluster from said colony (OFK).
What happened? Why are the anti-Communists ascendant after the Communists' great propaganda bonanza?
Well, perhaps it wasn't really a bonanza after all (and I'm happy to see Grit Hartman agree with me - Epoch Times), and the post-mortems (literally in some cases - Boycott 2008) are only making matters worse. Besides the pre-Olympic murder in the aforementioned link, we have an entire family imprisoned because one man protested during the Games (Washington Post) and lingering anger in Taiwan about the "Chinese Taipei" label (Epoch Times - this may in part explain the anti-Ma protest). The 2008 Games are so tarnished that London City Councillor felt safe criticizing the athletes who participated (Boycott 2008).
Thus, without the Olympic "bounce," the cadres were stuck with reports of corruption in the billions of dollars (Epoch Times), environmental protests (Epoch Times), international support for Gao Zhisheng (Epoch Times and Boycott 2008), criticism of the brutal occupation of East Turkestan (Epoch Times), nationalist anger at the border treaty with Russia (Epoch Times), and nervousness from the rest of the world about the regime's geopolitical objectives (The Australian and Boycott 2008).
As if that weren't bad enough, the lawsuit against regime-owned Bank of China for facilitating Hamas financing continued to get more press (NTDTV and Pajamas Media).
Given all of this, it shouldn't surprise anyone that those who would coddle up to the regime are resigning or facing criticism. The only surprise may be that the post-Olympic hangover is coming much quicker than expected, if only because few of us new the Olympics themselves would be such a bust.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Even Beijing locals were shafted by "successful" Olympics
I have spent quite a bit of bandwith discussing why Communist China's Olympiad did not do what the regime needed for it. Now, we discover that even in Beijing itself, the Games were a financial flop (World Tribune via Boycott 2008):
Oops.
This is the reality we must not forget regarding the Olympics. They were a wonderful show, but that did not make them effective from the cadres' perspective. Most of the world remembers the 1976 Games for Nadia Comaneci. Ask any Canadian and you'll get a much darker picture (the host city - Montreal - went bankrupt).
So now, it's back to normal for the Communist regime: repression (Between Heaven and Earth and Epoch Times), overseas intimidation (BH&E), playing nice to America (Washington Times) while undermining it (Front Page Magazine), and corruption (Epoch Times). The cadres still have the memory of the show, plus an added bonus in the continuing DPP scandal in Taiwan (Washington Post), but they know they did not get the propaganda bonanza they desperately needed - not even in the capital city itself.
The flood of foreign visitors never arrived . . . A clampdown on visas for young foreigners — part of the intensive and extensive security arrangements — gave China Air, the national carrier about 20 percent less traffic this July than last year. Domestic visitors, too, decided it was better to stay at home and watch the Games on TV rather than risk possible terrorist episodes, the crowding and high costs of the Beijing Olympics boom.
Oops.
This is the reality we must not forget regarding the Olympics. They were a wonderful show, but that did not make them effective from the cadres' perspective. Most of the world remembers the 1976 Games for Nadia Comaneci. Ask any Canadian and you'll get a much darker picture (the host city - Montreal - went bankrupt).
So now, it's back to normal for the Communist regime: repression (Between Heaven and Earth and Epoch Times), overseas intimidation (BH&E), playing nice to America (Washington Times) while undermining it (Front Page Magazine), and corruption (Epoch Times). The cadres still have the memory of the show, plus an added bonus in the continuing DPP scandal in Taiwan (Washington Post), but they know they did not get the propaganda bonanza they desperately needed - not even in the capital city itself.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Why does Communist China need an economic stimulus?
For those who tend to believe the stats Communist China puts out on domestic economic growth, this Epoch Times story will come as a shock:
As China’s market is anticipated to see a slight dip in the post-Olympic economy, it has been reported recently that the Chinese Communist Party is considering a 370 billion yuan (approximately US$54.03 billion) economic stimulus package.
Economic stimulus package? This is the economy that boasts growth rates of 10% annually. It is supposedly drowning in foreign investment, even more so with the great success of the Olympics. What happened?
Well, for starters, as the worldwide economy takes a breather (to put it mildly), the export-dependent economy is feeling the pinch (Asia News). More to the point, however, many of us wondered about the validity of those statistics, which are in fact aggregated totals from local cadres across the land desperate to make their little fiefdoms look good.
It's part of the larger problem in dealing with the Communist-imprisoned country: what you see is not always (and in fact hardly ever) what you get. The Olympics themselves were a prime example. It was a wonderful show (Washington Times) that nevertheless disguised a bloodthirsty regime (Between Heaven and Earth, Boycott 2008 Communist Olympics, and Epoch Times), and didn't hide it particularly well (National Review Online - Media Blog).
As the Games fade into memory, the truth has once again come to the fore, whether it's treatment of dissidents (BH&E), corruption (BBC), its Korean colony (BBC, Newsmax, and One Free Korea), or its weakening economy.
Of course, there will be many still dazzled by Beijing's smoke-and-mirrors, from new American allies (BBC) to would-be Vice Presidents (The View From Taiwan via the Weekly Standard), but today we saw one important pillar of falsehood collapse: the myth of the great Communist Chinese economy.
After all, if the economy were in such terrific shape, why would it need a stimulus package?
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Missing the forest for the towers
As more pundits disagree with my notion that the Communists botched the Olympics (especially Jay Nordlinger over at NRO - The Corner), I took some time to reassess my view. However, while Nordlinger, Anne Applebaum (Washington Post), Human Rights in China, and Zenit make some valid points, I think they've missed the larger issue.
While the Beijing Games certainly had wonderful stories about athletes (which were mentioned), I don't see as much of a glow for the host. In fact, for every blind MSM assertion that Nordlinger references, there was the off-key (for the cadres) response of John Burns (New York Times via Weekly Standard Blog): "In truth, some of the worst instincts of the old China have poked through the dazzle, most egregiously in the substitution of the pretty little girl in a red dress, and a voice-over, for the 7-year-old whose voice, but not her uneven teeth, met the Politburo’s standards."
I fear that many of my anti-Communist friends were expecting some sort of political disruption to hit the Olympics - or, to be more accurate, set the bar so high that only such a disruption would qualify as a failure for the Games. However, just because the Olympics did not achieve what we wanted (even if none of us expected it) does not mean the cadres got what they wanted either.
What did the cadres get? Conspiracy theories zipping around the local blogosphere about an injured athlete (Epoch Times) before the internet police could catch up to them and shut them down, the Wang Peiyi debacle, a blooming gymnastics scandal, and most ominously, a stunning lack of interest from outside Beijing. The last one is the real problem for the Communists (and one nearly anyone who focused to heavily on Beijing itself would have missed), since all the propaganda in the world means zilch if no one is listening.
I think this also reveals a larger problem within the anti-Communist community. Because it was largely urban intellectuals who led the fight against European Communism, most of us assume a similar uprising will bring down the CCP. This notion became further entrenched by the presence of the students in the 1989 Tiananmen Spring. However, the CCP has moved heaven and earth to co-opt the urban intellectual element - and sadly, they have had much success. The Party's weakness is outside Beijing, in the rural counties and industrial small cities where anger at the regime runs highest. This means the regime is far weaker than it appears to the outside world, in no small part because the folks searching for weaknesses (us) are looking in the wrong place. The Olympiad, along with reaction to it, is merely the latest (and best) example of this.
The other thing to remember is how the Olympics will be remembered a year from now. We will remember the athletic achievements, and the Chinese people will remember the corruption, land seizures, and payoffs that made it all possible. I doubt their memories will be fertile ground for Communist propaganda.
So, while the regime continues to arrest priests (Zenith), spread their economic influence (BBC and London Telegraph), prop up the Korean colony (BBC, CNN, and Washington Post), and intimidate democratic governments (Epoch Times), let us not forget that the major cities are the last place to look for the views, hopes, dreams, and grievances of the Chinese people. Otherwise, we will literally miss the forest for the gleaming towers.
While the Beijing Games certainly had wonderful stories about athletes (which were mentioned), I don't see as much of a glow for the host. In fact, for every blind MSM assertion that Nordlinger references, there was the off-key (for the cadres) response of John Burns (New York Times via Weekly Standard Blog): "In truth, some of the worst instincts of the old China have poked through the dazzle, most egregiously in the substitution of the pretty little girl in a red dress, and a voice-over, for the 7-year-old whose voice, but not her uneven teeth, met the Politburo’s standards."
I fear that many of my anti-Communist friends were expecting some sort of political disruption to hit the Olympics - or, to be more accurate, set the bar so high that only such a disruption would qualify as a failure for the Games. However, just because the Olympics did not achieve what we wanted (even if none of us expected it) does not mean the cadres got what they wanted either.
What did the cadres get? Conspiracy theories zipping around the local blogosphere about an injured athlete (Epoch Times) before the internet police could catch up to them and shut them down, the Wang Peiyi debacle, a blooming gymnastics scandal, and most ominously, a stunning lack of interest from outside Beijing. The last one is the real problem for the Communists (and one nearly anyone who focused to heavily on Beijing itself would have missed), since all the propaganda in the world means zilch if no one is listening.
I think this also reveals a larger problem within the anti-Communist community. Because it was largely urban intellectuals who led the fight against European Communism, most of us assume a similar uprising will bring down the CCP. This notion became further entrenched by the presence of the students in the 1989 Tiananmen Spring. However, the CCP has moved heaven and earth to co-opt the urban intellectual element - and sadly, they have had much success. The Party's weakness is outside Beijing, in the rural counties and industrial small cities where anger at the regime runs highest. This means the regime is far weaker than it appears to the outside world, in no small part because the folks searching for weaknesses (us) are looking in the wrong place. The Olympiad, along with reaction to it, is merely the latest (and best) example of this.
The other thing to remember is how the Olympics will be remembered a year from now. We will remember the athletic achievements, and the Chinese people will remember the corruption, land seizures, and payoffs that made it all possible. I doubt their memories will be fertile ground for Communist propaganda.
So, while the regime continues to arrest priests (Zenith), spread their economic influence (BBC and London Telegraph), prop up the Korean colony (BBC, CNN, and Washington Post), and intimidate democratic governments (Epoch Times), let us not forget that the major cities are the last place to look for the views, hopes, dreams, and grievances of the Chinese people. Otherwise, we will literally miss the forest for the gleaming towers.
Monday, August 25, 2008
And so it ends
The Olympics Games are now behind us. For anti-Communists, the regime's clampdown on free expression (BBC, Between Heaven and Earth, CNN, Boycott 2008 Communist Olympics, Epoch Times, NRO - Media Blog, and the Washington Post) and foreign press (CBC) is no real surprise. Nor are MSM's blind assertions that the Games were "a resounding success" for the cadres (Washington Times, although the Post had a similar column).
The real shock is that said assertions were wrong. These Olympic Games failed to do what the Communists asked of them (Epoch Times).
Every praiseworthy comment about the opening ceremony was matched with condemnation for the blackballing of Wang Peiyi. Their success in winning more gold medals than anyone else (although the United States won the overall medal count) was tarnished by the gymnastics scandal (Epoch Times). Add to that the fact that so many rural Chinese tuned the Games out, and what you have is something far less than the propaganda extravaganza the cadres wanted.
Even those who acknowledged a well-run show were put off: Tom Boswell (Washington Post) called it "soulless" while Tom Humphries (Irish Times via Boycott 2008) referred to it as "hermetically sealed."
Then, to top it off, the final day came with a message from Washington ripping the cadres for refusing "to demonstrate greater tolerance and openness" (London Telegraph via Boycott 2008) - definitely not the send-off the regime wanted.
For the Communists, the question is as follows: was it worth it? Was it worth the ruined lives and angry citizens (Boycott 2008)? Was it worth the inevitable corruption scandals? Based on the above, the answer is clearly No.
These Olympics will do nothing to stop Falun Gong from demanding the right to practice without prison, torture, or murder-for-organs (Boycott 2008 and Epoch Times). They will not silence investors furious over the cadres fleecing them (Epoch Times). They will not make people forget about Tibet (Epoch Times).
If anything, the Games have led the rest of the world to pay more attention to Communist China's military ambitions (Washington Times) and espionage activities (Ottowa Citizen via Small Dead Animals) - exactly where the cadres did not want any prying eyes.
For the Communists, it's back to business as usual, including propping up the ever more embarrassing Korean colony (BBC, BBC again, and One Free Korea). Whatever glow they have from these Games is pale and short-lived. These Olympics were supposed to add years to the life span of the regime; it would be lucky to get days for it.
The real shock is that said assertions were wrong. These Olympic Games failed to do what the Communists asked of them (Epoch Times).
Every praiseworthy comment about the opening ceremony was matched with condemnation for the blackballing of Wang Peiyi. Their success in winning more gold medals than anyone else (although the United States won the overall medal count) was tarnished by the gymnastics scandal (Epoch Times). Add to that the fact that so many rural Chinese tuned the Games out, and what you have is something far less than the propaganda extravaganza the cadres wanted.
Even those who acknowledged a well-run show were put off: Tom Boswell (Washington Post) called it "soulless" while Tom Humphries (Irish Times via Boycott 2008) referred to it as "hermetically sealed."
Then, to top it off, the final day came with a message from Washington ripping the cadres for refusing "to demonstrate greater tolerance and openness" (London Telegraph via Boycott 2008) - definitely not the send-off the regime wanted.
For the Communists, the question is as follows: was it worth it? Was it worth the ruined lives and angry citizens (Boycott 2008)? Was it worth the inevitable corruption scandals? Based on the above, the answer is clearly No.
These Olympics will do nothing to stop Falun Gong from demanding the right to practice without prison, torture, or murder-for-organs (Boycott 2008 and Epoch Times). They will not silence investors furious over the cadres fleecing them (Epoch Times). They will not make people forget about Tibet (Epoch Times).
If anything, the Games have led the rest of the world to pay more attention to Communist China's military ambitions (Washington Times) and espionage activities (Ottowa Citizen via Small Dead Animals) - exactly where the cadres did not want any prying eyes.
For the Communists, it's back to business as usual, including propping up the ever more embarrassing Korean colony (BBC, BBC again, and One Free Korea). Whatever glow they have from these Games is pale and short-lived. These Olympics were supposed to add years to the life span of the regime; it would be lucky to get days for it.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Terror lawsuit gives a glimpse into life after the Olympics
The Communist Olympiad continues to list badly on its way to sinking in two days. The cadres, who were hoping to bask in the glow of being a beloved and respected host, are instead besieged by a fresh investigation into their gymnasts (BBC, CNN, Spectator Coffee House, and the Times of London), controversy over the shutdown of I-Tunes (Times of London and the Weekly Standard Blog), outrage harsh measures to prevent any protests (Boycott 2008 and Epoch Times, and Washington Post), harassment of foreign media (National Review Online - Media Blog) and those who talk to them (Epoch Times). The cadres have been so tarnished that even when they get the empty praise they so badly wanted, the reaction to it is derision rather than agreement (NRO - Media Blog).
Meanwhile, the issues that the Olympics were supposed to submerge - ironically enough, these Games did that and more, but not for the reasons the cadres wanted - are returning to the horizon for all to see: religious persecution (Between Heaven and Earth and Boycott 2008), the plight of occupied Tibet (Epoch Times), the damaging effects of the hideous "one child" policy (Weekly Standard Blog), an economy in trouble (Epoch Times), the antics of the Korean colony (One Free Korea), and - here's the big one - a lawsuit by Israeli victims of a terrorist attack against a regime-owned bank that aided said terrorists (Epoch Times).
The details of the lawsuit reveal a multi-level scheme designed for the Communists to help the terrorists without appearing to do so:
In other words, Communist China is hosting a leading member of Hamas and handing him money for use in a fundraising scheme (keep in mind, Bank of China is one of the "Big Four" regime-owned banks). This suddenly brings to the fore an issue near and dear to yours truly for over half-a-dozen years.
While I would like to say it couldn't have come at a worse time, yesterday was a better day for the cadres for this to be filed then, say, next week. Still, the mere fact that this suit was filed could be a devastating blow, especially if it becomes well known that a Communist-owned bank was underwriting Middle Eastern terrorists so closely.
Had the Olympics been even remotely successful - from the Communist point of view - the regime may have had some reservoir of good will to deflect this for a while. With the Games what they are, the cadres have no margin for error. If this lawsuit gets traction, they could be facing a steady erosion of "engagement" support.
America and her allies will never be secure until China is free. These Games will not distract anyone from this fact; the aforementioned lawsuit could make it plain to every American.
The eighth month of the eighth year of this millennium could indeed be a very lucky one for the Chinese people - because it's been a disaster so far for the Communists.
Meanwhile, the issues that the Olympics were supposed to submerge - ironically enough, these Games did that and more, but not for the reasons the cadres wanted - are returning to the horizon for all to see: religious persecution (Between Heaven and Earth and Boycott 2008), the plight of occupied Tibet (Epoch Times), the damaging effects of the hideous "one child" policy (Weekly Standard Blog), an economy in trouble (Epoch Times), the antics of the Korean colony (One Free Korea), and - here's the big one - a lawsuit by Israeli victims of a terrorist attack against a regime-owned bank that aided said terrorists (Epoch Times).
The details of the lawsuit reveal a multi-level scheme designed for the Communists to help the terrorists without appearing to do so:
According to the charges, the Bank of China transferred regularly, over a period of time, amounts of about US$100,000 to the private bank account of a senior Hamas official located China. The latter used the money to buy merchandise which he shipped to Gaza. In Gaza, this merchandise was resold by senior Hamas officials and the profit was used to fund terrorist activities.
According to the plaintiffs and their attorney Nitzana, the Israeli government notified the Bank of China of the use Hamas was making of the money and demanded the bank of China to stop the transfers. Darshan-Leitner claims to have evidence proving this.
In other words, Communist China is hosting a leading member of Hamas and handing him money for use in a fundraising scheme (keep in mind, Bank of China is one of the "Big Four" regime-owned banks). This suddenly brings to the fore an issue near and dear to yours truly for over half-a-dozen years.
While I would like to say it couldn't have come at a worse time, yesterday was a better day for the cadres for this to be filed then, say, next week. Still, the mere fact that this suit was filed could be a devastating blow, especially if it becomes well known that a Communist-owned bank was underwriting Middle Eastern terrorists so closely.
Had the Olympics been even remotely successful - from the Communist point of view - the regime may have had some reservoir of good will to deflect this for a while. With the Games what they are, the cadres have no margin for error. If this lawsuit gets traction, they could be facing a steady erosion of "engagement" support.
America and her allies will never be secure until China is free. These Games will not distract anyone from this fact; the aforementioned lawsuit could make it plain to every American.
The eighth month of the eighth year of this millennium could indeed be a very lucky one for the Chinese people - because it's been a disaster so far for the Communists.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
The fakery chronicles continue
The Communist Olympiad continued to veer out of the cadres control and into a major embarrassment. The diligent journalists at the Epoch Times found more evidence - straight from CCP documents - that two members of the host's women's gymnastics team are underage. Meanwhile, one of the walls built to shield the real Beijing from visitors was dressed up as a building facade, replete with a phony sky (Epoch Times). Finally, the Washington Post reveals a regime so terrified of migrants workers' "farmhand manners" that it halted all construction last month and expelled nearly a million migrant workers, leaving some projects comically unfinished.
It wasn't supposed to be this way.
The cadres were planning for a two-week extravaganza blow-out that would be the talk of the planet and a major source of pride for the Chinese people (Epoch Times). Instead, the litany of fakery left the regime no defense against the usual criticisms about human rights (Boycott 2008, Epoch Times, and Front Page Magazine), including media censorship (Washington Times). Even the prisoners in Communist labor camps managed to outsmart the cadres and get their message out (Epoch Times).
It has come to the point where even the International Olympic Committee is taking it on the chin (Washington Times).
These Olympics appear to be the exact opposite of what the cadres wanted (and what nearly everyone expected). It will be more remembered outside Communist China, as a symbol of how the regime is not worthy of praise and respect, long after the Chinese people have forgotten it, leaving the cadres no defense against the inevitable corruption scandals.
About the only person happy with this ongoing disaster may be the Korean viceroy, whose own horrific exploits continue to be ignored by all but yours truly and One Free Korea.
It wasn't supposed to be this way.
The cadres were planning for a two-week extravaganza blow-out that would be the talk of the planet and a major source of pride for the Chinese people (Epoch Times). Instead, the litany of fakery left the regime no defense against the usual criticisms about human rights (Boycott 2008, Epoch Times, and Front Page Magazine), including media censorship (Washington Times). Even the prisoners in Communist labor camps managed to outsmart the cadres and get their message out (Epoch Times).
It has come to the point where even the International Olympic Committee is taking it on the chin (Washington Times).
These Olympics appear to be the exact opposite of what the cadres wanted (and what nearly everyone expected). It will be more remembered outside Communist China, as a symbol of how the regime is not worthy of praise and respect, long after the Chinese people have forgotten it, leaving the cadres no defense against the inevitable corruption scandals.
About the only person happy with this ongoing disaster may be the Korean viceroy, whose own horrific exploits continue to be ignored by all but yours truly and One Free Korea.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
They blew it
The Olympics are entering the home stretch. The Communist regime is certainly planning a closing ceremony that could be as captivating as the opening ceremony was before the fake fireworks and the stunningly cruel treatment of seven-year-old Yang Peiyi. Despite this, I believe we can come to some preliminary conclusions about the Communist-run Olympics Games. Most of the debate before the Games was whether or not the Olympics would force a change in the regime's behavior; just about everyone assumed the Communists would milk the event for all its worth as a propaganda bonanza. No one expected them to get that part wrong.
Yet that is exactly what happened: the Communist Olympiad - from the perspective of the Communists - has been a failure. To understand why, and what that means, one must remember what the cadres wanted - and, in fact, desperately needed - from these Games.
The Communist regime was looking for two things out of the Olympics. The first was foreign approval for their "mandate from heaven." Those who said this was the CCP's "coming-out party" were absolutely correct. The regime did everything it could to make Beijing look modern, vibrant, and dynamic - just like any city in the free world.
There were, however, some things the Communists couldn't do, because of the other and far more important objective of the Games - to use nationalist pride from the Games to build support for the Party and discredit dissidents. This would in part be driven by the aforementioned foreign support - anyone who participated in the Games would be labeled by the CCP as a supporter of the CCP (which is why I wanted a free-world boycott), and there would be many foreigners who would be more than willing to talk up the regime (especially in the "engagement" crowd). However, the Olympiad itself was also supposed to build "patriotic" feelings in the populace at large.
Three-quarters of the way through, we can now be certain that neither objective was achieved.
The first weekend looked very good from the regime's perspective; the opening ceremony drew more attention than many of the initial events. That backfired quickly when the acts of fakery were exposed, especially the treatment of Yang Peiyi. Thus, during a time when the cadres hoped to hear about how their wonderful hosting reflected on the Chinese people, they instead endured repeated criticism from international media - including the we-all-know-the-Chinese-government-is-not-the-Chinese-people dagger (one of the main purposes of the Games was to make the free world equate the CCP and China as one entity). Add to it the numerous reports of foul play surrounding the host's women's gymnastic team, and the Communists were reduced to being grateful that the conversation changed to Michael Phelps over this past weekend.
Still, even with the attempt to win foreign acclaim largely in shambles, the cadres could still count on the overwhelming gratitude and support of the Chinese people - at least that's what they thought. As it turns out, the cadres themselves made that goal impossible to achieve, first by their decision to keep tickets away from the public in order to make party members happy (this led to the embarrassing spectacle of empty seats), and then by their fawning of urban areas, which angered rural Chinese so much they are all but ignoring the entire thing.
This is especially troublesome for the Communists because the rural interior is the place where anger at the regime is highest. Thus, the nationalistic sentiment that the Olympics were supposed to spark has been nonexistent outside of the Potemkin cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen). Instead, the Games have set off a wave of hostility to the regime and the cities it has developed and micromanaged politically for three decades.
What will this mean for the future? For starters, it means the firewall on which the Communists counted to ride out the post-Olympic storm never materialized. More importantly, it means we may have reached a turning point on the "nationalist" card in general.
In the cities, where residents are dependent upon the Party for political connections, wealth, and development, the CCP can still hold firm and rely on the self-interest of the people it controls to do its bidding (this is why the young elite in Communist China's cities remain firmly wedded to the Party - the Party educated them and made them rich - precisely to ensure they don't take to Tiananmen Square as their counterparts in 1989 did).
In the countryside, however, there is less wealth to go around, and the cadres' sense of entitlement pretty much assures that they'll get all of it. As a result, the ordinary people are much less supportive of the Party. That is not new. What is new - or perhaps what the Olympics have exposed - is that love of China is not enough for these folks to look the other way and grant the Communists their propaganda coup. In other words, for the average rural farmer, there is a difference between China and the CCP, one that the Olympics appear to have reinforced, not eroded.
If this is the case (and from the outside, this must remain an "if"), then the Olympic Games are not just a failure for the Communists; they are a catastrophic failure that may mean the beginning of the end for the regime.
Yet that is exactly what happened: the Communist Olympiad - from the perspective of the Communists - has been a failure. To understand why, and what that means, one must remember what the cadres wanted - and, in fact, desperately needed - from these Games.
The Communist regime was looking for two things out of the Olympics. The first was foreign approval for their "mandate from heaven." Those who said this was the CCP's "coming-out party" were absolutely correct. The regime did everything it could to make Beijing look modern, vibrant, and dynamic - just like any city in the free world.
There were, however, some things the Communists couldn't do, because of the other and far more important objective of the Games - to use nationalist pride from the Games to build support for the Party and discredit dissidents. This would in part be driven by the aforementioned foreign support - anyone who participated in the Games would be labeled by the CCP as a supporter of the CCP (which is why I wanted a free-world boycott), and there would be many foreigners who would be more than willing to talk up the regime (especially in the "engagement" crowd). However, the Olympiad itself was also supposed to build "patriotic" feelings in the populace at large.
Three-quarters of the way through, we can now be certain that neither objective was achieved.
The first weekend looked very good from the regime's perspective; the opening ceremony drew more attention than many of the initial events. That backfired quickly when the acts of fakery were exposed, especially the treatment of Yang Peiyi. Thus, during a time when the cadres hoped to hear about how their wonderful hosting reflected on the Chinese people, they instead endured repeated criticism from international media - including the we-all-know-the-Chinese-government-is-not-the-Chinese-people dagger (one of the main purposes of the Games was to make the free world equate the CCP and China as one entity). Add to it the numerous reports of foul play surrounding the host's women's gymnastic team, and the Communists were reduced to being grateful that the conversation changed to Michael Phelps over this past weekend.
Still, even with the attempt to win foreign acclaim largely in shambles, the cadres could still count on the overwhelming gratitude and support of the Chinese people - at least that's what they thought. As it turns out, the cadres themselves made that goal impossible to achieve, first by their decision to keep tickets away from the public in order to make party members happy (this led to the embarrassing spectacle of empty seats), and then by their fawning of urban areas, which angered rural Chinese so much they are all but ignoring the entire thing.
This is especially troublesome for the Communists because the rural interior is the place where anger at the regime is highest. Thus, the nationalistic sentiment that the Olympics were supposed to spark has been nonexistent outside of the Potemkin cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen). Instead, the Games have set off a wave of hostility to the regime and the cities it has developed and micromanaged politically for three decades.
What will this mean for the future? For starters, it means the firewall on which the Communists counted to ride out the post-Olympic storm never materialized. More importantly, it means we may have reached a turning point on the "nationalist" card in general.
In the cities, where residents are dependent upon the Party for political connections, wealth, and development, the CCP can still hold firm and rely on the self-interest of the people it controls to do its bidding (this is why the young elite in Communist China's cities remain firmly wedded to the Party - the Party educated them and made them rich - precisely to ensure they don't take to Tiananmen Square as their counterparts in 1989 did).
In the countryside, however, there is less wealth to go around, and the cadres' sense of entitlement pretty much assures that they'll get all of it. As a result, the ordinary people are much less supportive of the Party. That is not new. What is new - or perhaps what the Olympics have exposed - is that love of China is not enough for these folks to look the other way and grant the Communists their propaganda coup. In other words, for the average rural farmer, there is a difference between China and the CCP, one that the Olympics appear to have reinforced, not eroded.
If this is the case (and from the outside, this must remain an "if"), then the Olympic Games are not just a failure for the Communists; they are a catastrophic failure that may mean the beginning of the end for the regime.
Even the Communists' friends are taking it on the chin
The Beijing Olympics is on the way to becoming a surprising disappointment for the Chinese Communist Party, as the expected complaints about human rights (BBC, Boycott 2008, and The Epoch Times) were complemented by outrage over the cadres telling a seven-year-old girl she was too ugly to go onstage (Epoch Times) and the fact that most rural Chinese were not paying attention to the propaganda. The cadres still have the last few days (Epoch Times) and the closing ceremony, but it appears unlikely to change the very bad dynamic for them.
Today's more surprising sign that things are indeed changing is the dramatic fall from grace of one of Communist China's best friends - former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien. Chretien recently blasted current PM Stephen Harper for not showing up in Beijing (CanWest Global) and granting honorary citizenship to the Dalai Lama. Now, for those of us who've been watching the Liberal Party of Canada, this is standard "engagement" stuff. The reaction to it was something else again.
Chretien probably expected a tame reaction from Harper et al, especially with his old Grit caucus buddy David Emerson know in place as Foreign Minister. However, Harper handed the Chretien reaction file not to Emerson, but to anti-Communist Jason Kenney - and Kenney said a mouthful (Globe and Mail):
That Kenney would have free reign to criticize Chretien so strongly - and that the Globe and Mail would also criticize Chretien in an editorial the day before (G&M's coverage also surprised Kate from Small Dead Animals) - is a powerful symbol of how things have changed up there (The Halifax Chronicle-Herald was even more critical of Chretien, but I doubt it has much resonance outside of Atlantic Canada).
It may (stress, may) very well be that the weakness of these Olympics - from the propaganda perspective - is taking its toll on the entire "engagement" apparatus. Robert Samuelson of the Washington Post actually wrote about the economic threat from Communist China (although it wasn't his first time), which is exactly what the cadres had hoped would not be discussed during the Games. What was supposed to be a barrier to the Communist regime's perfidy (for animal abuses, see World Net Daily; overseas intimidation, Epoch Times; Taiwan, Weekly Standard; and North Korea, One Free Korea) has instead become a magnet for them.
Nazi Germany was destroyed nine years after the 1936 Olympics, but the Games themselves were a boon to Hitler's regime. Moscow's 1980 Olympiad was tarnished by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the resulting boycott that was reflective of a more resolute free world, which helped bring the USSR down in eleven years. Whatever one thought of the 2008 Games (an "engagement" opportunity or a propaganda bonanza), just about everyone assumed they would be a success for the Communists. Yet not only are the Games looking more and more like a failure, but they may be a failure that damages "engagement" itself, and gives anti-Communism a surprising chance at revival. This may be a decade for hope after all.
Today's more surprising sign that things are indeed changing is the dramatic fall from grace of one of Communist China's best friends - former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien. Chretien recently blasted current PM Stephen Harper for not showing up in Beijing (CanWest Global) and granting honorary citizenship to the Dalai Lama. Now, for those of us who've been watching the Liberal Party of Canada, this is standard "engagement" stuff. The reaction to it was something else again.
Chretien probably expected a tame reaction from Harper et al, especially with his old Grit caucus buddy David Emerson know in place as Foreign Minister. However, Harper handed the Chretien reaction file not to Emerson, but to anti-Communist Jason Kenney - and Kenney said a mouthful (Globe and Mail):
"I think it reconfirms that Mr. Chrétien and the Liberals have always pursued a policy in this area calculated to their own personal financial interests and those of rich and powerful friends," Mr. Kenney said yesterday.
"It's no mistake that Mr. Chrétien was calculating his retirement income in his relations in this area. [It was] a few weeks after he left the premiership that he was being signed on as a consultant to multinational companies with commercial interests in this area. ..."
Mr. Kenney was clearly referring to Power Corp., the conglomerate founded by Paul Desmarais Sr. His son, André Desmarais, now the co-CEO, is married to Mr. Chrétien's daughter, France, and Mr. Chrétien's long-time campaign manager and adviser, John Rae, is a senior Power executive.
Mr. Chrétien travelled to China two months after leaving office accompanied by Power executives, and has returned several times to represent business clients.
That Kenney would have free reign to criticize Chretien so strongly - and that the Globe and Mail would also criticize Chretien in an editorial the day before (G&M's coverage also surprised Kate from Small Dead Animals) - is a powerful symbol of how things have changed up there (The Halifax Chronicle-Herald was even more critical of Chretien, but I doubt it has much resonance outside of Atlantic Canada).
It may (stress, may) very well be that the weakness of these Olympics - from the propaganda perspective - is taking its toll on the entire "engagement" apparatus. Robert Samuelson of the Washington Post actually wrote about the economic threat from Communist China (although it wasn't his first time), which is exactly what the cadres had hoped would not be discussed during the Games. What was supposed to be a barrier to the Communist regime's perfidy (for animal abuses, see World Net Daily; overseas intimidation, Epoch Times; Taiwan, Weekly Standard; and North Korea, One Free Korea) has instead become a magnet for them.
Nazi Germany was destroyed nine years after the 1936 Olympics, but the Games themselves were a boon to Hitler's regime. Moscow's 1980 Olympiad was tarnished by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the resulting boycott that was reflective of a more resolute free world, which helped bring the USSR down in eleven years. Whatever one thought of the 2008 Games (an "engagement" opportunity or a propaganda bonanza), just about everyone assumed they would be a success for the Communists. Yet not only are the Games looking more and more like a failure, but they may be a failure that damages "engagement" itself, and gives anti-Communism a surprising chance at revival. This may be a decade for hope after all.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
More bad news for the cadres
The revulsion to Olympic fakery continues to ripple around the world (Boycott 2008, National Post, National Review Online, and the Washington Times). The "protest zones" that were supposed to be a model of the regime's human face have become a mocking symbol of its iron fist (Washington Post). To top it off, when the regime finally gets a hand from one of its best friends (ex-Canadian PM Jean Chretien - CanWest) local media responds by finding the whistleblower who started an investigation into Communist espionage that said friend thought he had buried and turning him (the whistleblower) into a household name (Ottowa Citizen via Small Dead Animals).
Yet as bad as all of this was for the Communists, nothing compared to what Joshua Kurlantzick found in the rural hinterland (National Post via Boycott 2008, emphasis added):
That statement is exactly what the Communists did not want from these Games. The entire purpose of this propaganda exercise (and from the cadres' point of view, that's all this is) was to set off a wave of pride that would engulf the rural interior. Yet Communist China's continuous brainwashing and coddling of urban Chinese has clearly angered rural Chinese in a way that no level of propaganda can cure.
I'm not sure if the folks from the hinterland have made the full separation of the Chinese Communist Party from China, but they certainly understand the difference between China as a whole and the urban pockets the CCP has fostered. That may be enough to make most rural Chinese completely immune from the propaganda effect of the Games.
In which case - for the Communists - these Olympics are already a failure. There will be no reservoir of memory from which to draw when the time comes to bail out the Korean colony again (One Free Korea and Washington Times), continue the persecution of dissidents (Between Heaven and Earth and Epoch Times), and deal with the upcoming corruption exposure.
Yet as bad as all of this was for the Communists, nothing compared to what Joshua Kurlantzick found in the rural hinterland (National Post via Boycott 2008, emphasis added):
Interior China’s GDP lags far behind eastern China’s, and as China opens to foreign imports small-plot Chinese farmers will find it even harder to make a living, since they’ll be competing with the massive Brazilian, American and Australian agribusinesses. Worse, the pollution caused by Chinese industry is destroying farmland and water sources — vast parts of the agricultural heartland will virtually run dry within 30 years. Meanwhile, rural people actually face higher tax levies, according to their income, than many richer city citizens, partly because local officials just want to make more money.
Not surprisingly, for many of these rural dwellers the Games might be an interesting distraction on TV, rather than a source of major pride. “It is something that only the people in cities around Beijing care about,” one young Chinese in a rural town told Rian Dundon, a photographer who studies youth culture in China’s interior. “People from Hunan [an interior province] and other far away places don’t really feel very excited about it, and I don’t feel a personal connection to it.”
Indeed, Dundon found that young people in the interior were angry that whatever positive impact the Games had would be limited to the cities. “The Olympics can only affect a very small part China. The rest will be left behind,” another young rural Chinese told him.
That statement is exactly what the Communists did not want from these Games. The entire purpose of this propaganda exercise (and from the cadres' point of view, that's all this is) was to set off a wave of pride that would engulf the rural interior. Yet Communist China's continuous brainwashing and coddling of urban Chinese has clearly angered rural Chinese in a way that no level of propaganda can cure.
I'm not sure if the folks from the hinterland have made the full separation of the Chinese Communist Party from China, but they certainly understand the difference between China as a whole and the urban pockets the CCP has fostered. That may be enough to make most rural Chinese completely immune from the propaganda effect of the Games.
In which case - for the Communists - these Olympics are already a failure. There will be no reservoir of memory from which to draw when the time comes to bail out the Korean colony again (One Free Korea and Washington Times), continue the persecution of dissidents (Between Heaven and Earth and Epoch Times), and deal with the upcoming corruption exposure.
Monday, August 18, 2008
So we enter the second half . . .
The Communists prepared for these two weeks since 2001. They wanted everything just right and in place. The turned their usual snow-job on the rest of the world into overdrive while the razed old Beijing to build the sports stadiums.
Now, with just six days to go until the closing ceremony, the cadres can look outside of Beijing and be happy. The Washington Times is running almost ridiculously sycophantic columns; Australia is now under the control of one of their best friends (Epoch Times); the overseas intimidation techniques reached the United States itself (Epoch Times); and most importantly, their biggest headache over the last eight years - former Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, has all but disappeared under a cloud of corruption charges (Channel News Asia). One could hardly have a better international backdrop for the Communist Olympiad.
However, instead of gliding to the propaganda climax for which the cadres' hoped, the Games are careening out of control into what could be a stunning failure.
Amidst the athletic events, the coverage is still dominated by the cruel treatment of seven-year-old Yang Peiyi (Epoch Times and more Epoch Times) and other fakeries (Front Page Magazine). Even worse, we are now discovering that the empty seats in the Olympic venues were actually caused by the regime itself, which limited ticket distribution to cadres and their trusted pals (Epoch Times). Meanwhile, those who could get tickets are already complaining about the lack of food (Epoch Times). The sponsors are unhappy (Epoch Times), but much more importantly, so are the Chinese people (Times of London).
That is why these Olympics are already far worse than the cadres expected. The Communists were willing to ride out the storm on dissident blackouts (still no authorized protests in the protest zone - BBC and Washington Post), crackdowns (Boycott 2008, CNN, Epoch Times and more Epoch Times), media restrictions and surveillance (Epoch Times and Washington Post), occasional problems from the Korean colony (Epoch Times and One Free Korea), etc. All was worth it so long as the Chinese people saw a spectacular show and fawning international approval.
What they have are a slew of scandals (even the Korean colony gets into the act there - OFK), missteps, and other problems. While the rest of the world's reaction is mixed, the Chinese people have simply decided to tune the Games out.
The Beijing Olympics were supposed to make the CCP look respectable to the rest of the world and - much more importantly - look respected by said world to the Chinese people. More than halfway in, it appears unlikely that the Communists will achieve either goal. If that holds, it would easily be the biggest upset of the entire Olympiad.
Now, with just six days to go until the closing ceremony, the cadres can look outside of Beijing and be happy. The Washington Times is running almost ridiculously sycophantic columns; Australia is now under the control of one of their best friends (Epoch Times); the overseas intimidation techniques reached the United States itself (Epoch Times); and most importantly, their biggest headache over the last eight years - former Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, has all but disappeared under a cloud of corruption charges (Channel News Asia). One could hardly have a better international backdrop for the Communist Olympiad.
However, instead of gliding to the propaganda climax for which the cadres' hoped, the Games are careening out of control into what could be a stunning failure.
Amidst the athletic events, the coverage is still dominated by the cruel treatment of seven-year-old Yang Peiyi (Epoch Times and more Epoch Times) and other fakeries (Front Page Magazine). Even worse, we are now discovering that the empty seats in the Olympic venues were actually caused by the regime itself, which limited ticket distribution to cadres and their trusted pals (Epoch Times). Meanwhile, those who could get tickets are already complaining about the lack of food (Epoch Times). The sponsors are unhappy (Epoch Times), but much more importantly, so are the Chinese people (Times of London).
That is why these Olympics are already far worse than the cadres expected. The Communists were willing to ride out the storm on dissident blackouts (still no authorized protests in the protest zone - BBC and Washington Post), crackdowns (Boycott 2008, CNN, Epoch Times and more Epoch Times), media restrictions and surveillance (Epoch Times and Washington Post), occasional problems from the Korean colony (Epoch Times and One Free Korea), etc. All was worth it so long as the Chinese people saw a spectacular show and fawning international approval.
What they have are a slew of scandals (even the Korean colony gets into the act there - OFK), missteps, and other problems. While the rest of the world's reaction is mixed, the Chinese people have simply decided to tune the Games out.
The Beijing Olympics were supposed to make the CCP look respectable to the rest of the world and - much more importantly - look respected by said world to the Chinese people. More than halfway in, it appears unlikely that the Communists will achieve either goal. If that holds, it would easily be the biggest upset of the entire Olympiad.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Another day, another Olympic pitfall for the Communists
When it was just faked parts of the opening ceremony fireworks, it seemed merely a symbolic faux pas. When we found out the regime told a seven-year-old girl she was too ugly for the stage, it became a symbol of the regime's cruelty (National Review Online and NRO - The Corner).
Now, we have reports of actual scandals, i.e., the regime trying to fix the outcome of events.
The most well-known problems involve the women's gymnastics team - which according to both outside and Communist news sources include athletes too young to participate (NRO and Washington Post). There is also the question of who got a hold of Abhinav Bindra's rifle before Men's 10m Air Rifle Final (although Bindra was able to fix the problem and win - Boycott 2008).
I must confess; this doesn't surprise me. This is a regime willing to built eight-foot walls to block the view of older housing in the city (CNN). They created special protest zones and refuse to let any protesters use them (Washington Post), while bringing in the cameras for the good half of their interrogations with foreign protesters (Washington Post). Their promises of cutting back on human rights abuses before and during the Games has proven to be a joke (Between Heaven and Earth and Boycott 2008).
Given all of the above, it's no shock that the cadres would try to inflate their medal total through unethical means (that they could be so easily caught - as with the gymnastics flap - does surprise me a little). After all, what matters to the Communists, first and foremost, is putting on the best show possible for the Chinese people to see - not on their behalf, as is so readily assumed outside Communist China.
I've already pointed to evidence that the cadres are coming up short here, and more of it came today courtesy of the Washington Post. The headline says it all: "Across China's Countryside, 'Just Too Busy' for Olympics."
Given that the restive countryside was the target audience for the Olympic propaganda, this is a big deal - and a very troubling one for the Communists. Fewer watchers from the rural interior means angrier peasants when evidence of the pre-Olympic corruption seeps out (as it inevitably will when the Games end).
When Beijing was awarded the Games in 2001, the argument between engagers and anti-Communists was whether the Olympics would succeed in nudging the CCP toward change or simply give the Party a huge propaganda success. That the regime would stumble from embarrassing stagecraft to athletic scandal wasn't on anyone's radar (even the Korean colony can't gain from the relative anonymity the Games provide - One Free Korea).
In fact, these Olympic Games may be something neither side saw coming: a flop.
Now, we have reports of actual scandals, i.e., the regime trying to fix the outcome of events.
The most well-known problems involve the women's gymnastics team - which according to both outside and Communist news sources include athletes too young to participate (NRO and Washington Post). There is also the question of who got a hold of Abhinav Bindra's rifle before Men's 10m Air Rifle Final (although Bindra was able to fix the problem and win - Boycott 2008).
I must confess; this doesn't surprise me. This is a regime willing to built eight-foot walls to block the view of older housing in the city (CNN). They created special protest zones and refuse to let any protesters use them (Washington Post), while bringing in the cameras for the good half of their interrogations with foreign protesters (Washington Post). Their promises of cutting back on human rights abuses before and during the Games has proven to be a joke (Between Heaven and Earth and Boycott 2008).
Given all of the above, it's no shock that the cadres would try to inflate their medal total through unethical means (that they could be so easily caught - as with the gymnastics flap - does surprise me a little). After all, what matters to the Communists, first and foremost, is putting on the best show possible for the Chinese people to see - not on their behalf, as is so readily assumed outside Communist China.
I've already pointed to evidence that the cadres are coming up short here, and more of it came today courtesy of the Washington Post. The headline says it all: "Across China's Countryside, 'Just Too Busy' for Olympics."
Given that the restive countryside was the target audience for the Olympic propaganda, this is a big deal - and a very troubling one for the Communists. Fewer watchers from the rural interior means angrier peasants when evidence of the pre-Olympic corruption seeps out (as it inevitably will when the Games end).
When Beijing was awarded the Games in 2001, the argument between engagers and anti-Communists was whether the Olympics would succeed in nudging the CCP toward change or simply give the Party a huge propaganda success. That the regime would stumble from embarrassing stagecraft to athletic scandal wasn't on anyone's radar (even the Korean colony can't gain from the relative anonymity the Games provide - One Free Korea).
In fact, these Olympic Games may be something neither side saw coming: a flop.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Reverting to from
Communist China appears to have decided they've gotten all they can out of the Olympics from an international perspective. Not that the international perspective was the primary goal, the regime's real interest was making its people believe it had won international acclaim. However, recent events are making clear the cadres are more focused on hoodwinking their own people - the rest of the world be damned.
The best evidence for this is the latest Sudanese attack on Darfur (Times of London). This would have been unthinkable just a week ago for public relations reasons, but with the opening ceremony behind them (and with its value being steadily eroded by the exposure of fakery - Boycott 2008), the regime has obviously decided that it can ride out the international storm.
This will also mean that the already invasive security at the Games will continue (BBC and Boycott 2008), as will the human rights abuses (Between Heaven and Earth, Boycott 2008, and the Washington Times), antics by satellite state like Sudan and North Korea (One Free Korea), and the overseas intimidation (Epoch Times), although they may need to dial it down in Australia - or at least decouple it from the drug trade (Epoch Times). Meanwhile, any athletes hoping the cadres will move beyond their regime-controlled religious establishment (Washington Post) had best not hold their breath.
The other clear signal that the Olympics are all about bamboozling the Chinese people is the news that the cadres are now pointing the finger at Falun Gong for the Todd Bachman murder (Epoch Times). Frankly, this is a stunner - not necessarily because the Communists are trying to tar Falun Gong, but because it was the standard propaganda line from the get-go.
This tells us that the regime is no longer paying attention to the rest of the world. The cadres knew that Falun Gong has enough defenders out there (including yours truly) to make any accusation controversial. The regime would have to know that changing its story to blame the movement will be even worse - outside Communist China.
Inside Communist China, however, it could be another story. To get an idea as to how different the "news" is over there, take a look at how Michael Phelps has been covered (International Herald Tribune). It's abundantly clear that the Communists are determined to get as much internal propaganda value as possible, and that no longer means worrying about the rest of the world.
Still, the new Falun Gong smear smacks of desperation to me. The Games are almost halfway through, and the high from the opening ceremony has worn off with surprising speed (even those who don't focus on the fakery, like Meghan Cox Gurdon of the Washington Examiner, are no longer impressed). The closing ceremony - and more importantly, the post-Olympic hangover - are coming on fast. The Communists are playing defense now.
The best evidence for this is the latest Sudanese attack on Darfur (Times of London). This would have been unthinkable just a week ago for public relations reasons, but with the opening ceremony behind them (and with its value being steadily eroded by the exposure of fakery - Boycott 2008), the regime has obviously decided that it can ride out the international storm.
This will also mean that the already invasive security at the Games will continue (BBC and Boycott 2008), as will the human rights abuses (Between Heaven and Earth, Boycott 2008, and the Washington Times), antics by satellite state like Sudan and North Korea (One Free Korea), and the overseas intimidation (Epoch Times), although they may need to dial it down in Australia - or at least decouple it from the drug trade (Epoch Times). Meanwhile, any athletes hoping the cadres will move beyond their regime-controlled religious establishment (Washington Post) had best not hold their breath.
The other clear signal that the Olympics are all about bamboozling the Chinese people is the news that the cadres are now pointing the finger at Falun Gong for the Todd Bachman murder (Epoch Times). Frankly, this is a stunner - not necessarily because the Communists are trying to tar Falun Gong, but because it was the standard propaganda line from the get-go.
This tells us that the regime is no longer paying attention to the rest of the world. The cadres knew that Falun Gong has enough defenders out there (including yours truly) to make any accusation controversial. The regime would have to know that changing its story to blame the movement will be even worse - outside Communist China.
Inside Communist China, however, it could be another story. To get an idea as to how different the "news" is over there, take a look at how Michael Phelps has been covered (International Herald Tribune). It's abundantly clear that the Communists are determined to get as much internal propaganda value as possible, and that no longer means worrying about the rest of the world.
Still, the new Falun Gong smear smacks of desperation to me. The Games are almost halfway through, and the high from the opening ceremony has worn off with surprising speed (even those who don't focus on the fakery, like Meghan Cox Gurdon of the Washington Examiner, are no longer impressed). The closing ceremony - and more importantly, the post-Olympic hangover - are coming on fast. The Communists are playing defense now.
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