Why the Hunstman-for-President speculation badly misses the point

The complete lack of interest in eastern Asia within MSM was exposed (again) with the recent flare-up in speculation that John Hunstman, current American Ambassador to the Chinese Communist regime, refused to rule out running for President in 2012. The State neatly summarizes the reaction, which completely focuses on Hunstman's Republican bona fides and how (or if) he could manage to run against his current boss (for more on Hunstman himself, see the Los Angeles Times). Even Jay Cost of the Weekly Standard was stuck on the domestic political implications.

No one, to date, has even bothered to ask why Hunstman would consider leaving in the first place. He is, after all, Ambassador to the CCP regime. If this were an Ambassador to a European nation considering a run against the president who appointed him, or a Middle Eastern nation, speculation would almost certainly focus on policy differences. In fact, given the Obama Administration's recent policies on the CCP, this may be the most important (if unrecognized) reason.

Lest we forget, Hunstman signed up for the job expecting (as nearly everyone else did) that he would be the point man for continued "engagement" with the ChiComs. Instead, Hunstman has watched Secretary of State Hillary Clinton publicly rebuke the CCP for trying to claim the South China Sea and the Senkakus for itself (Duncan Currie: National Review Online - The Corner). Then the president engaged in a post-election tour of Asia that included all of Zhongnanhai's major rivals expect Vietnam, but not Hunstman's posting itself.

Finally, there was the reaction to the recent antics from Stalinist North Korea, in which the early inaction (disappointing for those of us looking to send a message to the CCP) was followed by . . . more inaction (a pleasant surprise for those of us expecting concessions to Beijing and Pyongyang).

So what does a marginalized ambassador who is watching the Administration for which he works move toward a policy unseen in 20 years - and a policy the ambassador himself opposes to boot?

Drop broad hints that you could turn from appointee to rival is a good way to get attention. It worked wonders for opponents of American military action in Iraq.

Unfortunately for Hunstman (and fortunately for the rest of us, if only in this case), American MSM still hasn't paid enough attention to Obama's Asia policy. The combination of domestic politics and traditional attention bias toward Europe or the Middle East has blinded nearly everyone to the fact that the policy Hunstman was appointed to promote and the policy into which the Administration has stumbled are quite different.

So, I think we can expect more heartburn from Hunstman, until the media begin to notice what the Administration is actually doing in eastern Asia (our allies there already know, and are deeply grateful). In the meantime, it must be enormously painful for the CCP to discover that everything it has tried, from provocations by its Korean colony to rumblings from its American friends, has failed to change Washington slow-but-steadying drift toward anti-Communism.

The Obama Administration continues to be far weaker than it should on human rights in the CCP, but in the purely geopolitical realm, its policy in eastern Asia continues to be an improvement over its three most recent predecessors. It would be nice for someone other than the CCP itself or the American Ambassador there to notice.

Cross-posted to Bearing Drift

Will Japan re-energize Obama on the CCP?

The Obama Administration's reaction to Stalinist North Korea's attack on the democratic South was traditional, conventional, and weak. Once again, the Chinese Communist Party was able to position itself as the supposedly reasonable regional power trying to get a handle on their crazy ally - even though it has to this day refused to criticize Kim Jong-il and his crew. That said, Zhongnanhai has been unable to get policy concessions out of the president yet, and what Japan is about to do with its National Defense Policy Guidelines may get the White House to snap of out its post-attack stupor.

According to the Financial Times (UK), Japan's military will release the aforementioned guidelines later this month, and they will call for a major shift in military policy.

Officials and analysts say the keenly awaited National Defence Policy Guidelines will signal a historic refocusing of Japan's army and other forces toward securing the line of small islands in the southern Nansei chain that stretches from Japan’s main islands toward Taiwan and are seen as threatened by China's rapidly growing military power.

Among the islands in the Nansei chain are Okinawa and the Senkakus, the latter of which are claimed by the Communists (they call them the Diaoyus).

The implications of this are numerous, and none are good for the CCP.

Within Japan, it means a maturing of the Democratic Party of Japan - recently elected to power on a platform that included cozying up to the Communists. According to an analyst quoted by the FT, a recent incident with a fishing boat from mainland China woke up the DPJ and the military top brass about the threat from the CCP. The long-governing Liberal Democratic Party had moved in an anti-Communist direction under Junichirio Koizumi (the last LDP leader to win an election - in 2005). Now the DPJ is joining its rival.

Regionally, the CCP may find itself repeating recent history - and not in a good way for the Communists. Last year, Zhongnanhai tried to take advantage of apparent American weakness by declaring the entire South China Sea for itself. Several American allies, including Indonesia, cried foul - and much to everyone's surprise, America joined them. Just weeks ago, President Obama himself called for India to be made a permanent member of the Security Council. Now, Japan will be heavily reinforcing an island chain that at present includes a large (and locally controversial) American military base.

If Okinawa is now a regional front-line island, the US military may not be so unwelcome. Or more likely, a strong Japanese military presence may allow the US to pull out of Okinawa entirely, thus replacing an unpopular foreign power with a strong domestic military presence dedicated to defending the homeland, while the Pentagon can score an unexpected boon to reallocate or contribution to overall deficit reduction.

I sincerely doubt the CCP was hoping for that.

In any event, Obama, whatever one thinks of him, is clearly the most multilateral president America has had in a long time. As I noted earlier, this has led to a focus on our more well-known allies in Europe - most of whom are wheezing social democracies increasingly unwilling to defend themselves from regional and global threats.

However, in Asia, America's allies are more practical - and the CCP threat is more pressing and immediate. As such, Obama's instincts have lead him to be tougher on Zhongnanhai then previous Administration's in the South China Sea. Unfortunately, the refusal to accept the reality of the CCP-North Korea alliance (i.e., that it's a tool Zhongnanhai uses to pry democratic nations apart) afflicts Seoul and Tokyo as much as it does Washington. However, the Communists have no such deflection at the ready where the Nansei-Sankakus are concerned.

If Japan really does shift its military posture (the report has not yet been released) and Washington stands with Japan as it did with Indonesia, the Obama Administration's unnamed-containment policy may be back on track.

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal

On the State of Play

The Zeitgeist had two more examples of where we are vis a vis Communist China: the threat is understood by most to be real, but perhaps stronger than it truly is. Unfortunately, those who know enough to understand how weak the Chinese Communist regime is still use that fact to ignore - to out peril - the Party's motives.

Our first example is unusual - broadcast television. CBS' NCIS: Los Angeles is a new favorite in the household, with plots usually surrounding your typical crime drama with a military veneer. On occasion, the show ventures into modern geopolitics - almost always regarding the Wahhabist-Ba'athist-Khomeinist War (better known as the War on Terror).

This week, however, the emphasis was on "almost," as viewers were treated to one of the most anti-Communist TV hours since the PNTR debate of a decade ago. An investigation of a naval officer's suicide uncovers an espionage ring of whole families who agree to raise children as intelligence agents in exchange for life in America - and permission to have more than one child (the officer himself was the would-be spy; he took his own life rather than betray the United States).

Now, whether Communist Chinese intel is smart enough (perhaps) and patient enough (absolutely) to hatch a plot like that isn't the point. Here's what is: the major themes of the anti-Communist movement - the danger of CCP espionage, the plight of regime victims bullied into becoming regime agents, the horrifying "one child" fiasco - were aired across the country on a major network for all to see. If even Hollywood is prepared to accept the Communist Chinese threat, Washington can't be that far behind.

Unfortunately, so long as Washington continues to attract the Tom Friedmans of the world, it will be a maddening place in the interim. This is was the Washington Post piece by Steve Mufson and John Pomfret is so helpful - to a point. The former Post correspondents in Communist China detail the holes in the "Chinese century" theory. Among the juicier nuggets . . .

Projections of China's economic growth seem to shortchange the country's looming demographic crisis: It is going to be the first nation in the world to grow old before it gets rich. By the middle of this century the percentage of its population above age 60 will be higher than in the United States, and more than 100 million Chinese will be older than 80. China also faces serious water shortages that could hurt enterprises from wheat farms to power plants to microchip manufacturers.

And about all those engineers? In 2006, the New York Times reported that China graduates 600,000 a year compared with 70,000 in the United States. The Times report was quoted on the House floor. Just one problem: China's statisticians count car mechanics and refrigerator repairmen as "engineers."

In other words, the CCP isn't nearly as strong as so many fear.

Unfortunately, Pomfret and Mufson make an increasingly common mistake:

Some decades ago, Americans were obsessed with another emerging Asian giant: Japan . . . But then something happened. Japan's economy lost its game. The 1990s became a "lost decade," so much so that during the toughest days of the recent financial crisis, Japan was invoked as a cautionary tale, lest we not do enough to jump-start our economy.

Indeed, I remember when fear of a rising Japan seemed to consume America. There's only one problem: Japan was an American ally, a fact that always made the Nippo-phobia (assuming that's a word) overblown and ridiculous.

The CCP, by contrast, is an American enemy. This motive, lost on Mufson and Pomfret but not on the Writers' Guild, makes all the difference.

In the 1970s, European Communism was an economic basket case, too. The Soviet Union had a leader growing more and more detached from reality as his people suffered deeply. Yet the Soviets, like the CCP today, saw these weaknesses as reason to expand their power around the globe (in order to counteract the weakness), and because they came up against an unsure and self-doubting America, the decade that was supposed to spell out their doom turned into their best shot at global domination.

The Chinese Communist Party is in similar desperate straits, and may be facing a similarly distracted and despairing America. The CCP's weakness should reassure us about our position, but not reassure us on the Party's motive.

That last part is still something Washington hasn't quite figured out. That Hollywood - of all places - has is a good sign, but also a reminder of how far we still have to go until China is once again free and America is at last secure.

The week that was

By any indication, this was a week that began just awfully for anti-Communists. Yet, as it comes to an end, it may be the CCP itself who rues the seven days.

The week began (badly) in Japan, where Taro Aso - the latest and possibly most passionate in a line of anti-Communist Japanese premiers that included Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe - became the first Liberal Democrat in sixteen years (and arguably the first in over fifty) to suffer an outright defeat at the hands of the voters. The newly empowered Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has been spouting about moving away from the United States and closer to the Chinese Communist Party for years. Now, with a hammerlock on Japan's House of Representatives, they can form the government for the first time in history.

The next day brought a double-whammy: the family of Chen Shui-bian (former President of Taiwan and former leader of the anti-Communist Democratic Progressive Party) were convicted of perjury in his corruption trial. Chen himself will hear his verdict in about a week (Epoch Times); a conviction is all but certain. Meanwhile, Petrochina put in a nearly $2-billion bid for a major Albertan oil project, possibly turning North America's alternative to Middle Eastern oil into Beijing's overseas resource center.

All in all, the week looked horrific - and it was only Monday.

In fact, however, that was the whole point: the week still had five days left. Much as you don't declare the football game over at half-time, one cannot declare a week a disaster just two days in. On the contrary, as the week wore on, it started to wear a little better.

While the anti-Communist leaders were reeling from the Chen drama in Taiwan, the anti-Communist populace were making their presence known. President Ma Ying-jeou continued to take it on the chin politically on several fronts, while the presence of the Dalai Lama (whom Ma could not dare to ban from the island democracy) brought out the worst in the CCP - and reminded all who live on Taiwan just what reunification under Zhongnanhai would mean (Central News Agency). Much like the Republicans here have sprung back to life with the departure of George W. Bush, recent events on Taiwan make clear the anti-Communist DPP could have a revival of its own once the Chens leave the scene (voluntarily or otherwise).

The situation in Japan also improved - or to be more precise, it was revealed to be better than originally thought. For all the DPJ talk of moving closer to Beijing, one glaring obstacle stares them dead in the face - the choatic House of Councillors (known as the "upper house"). While the outgoing LDP lost control of that chamber in 2007, the DPJ doesn't control it either. Instead, it will have to rely on smaller parties from left and right - the latter will likely be nonplussed with any serious move in Beijing's direction. Until new Councillor elections next year, any new move in foreign policy could lead to trouble, which is why the triumphant DPJ is suddenly talking down any references to them.

Even the situation in Canada improved, and not just because the anti-Communists in the country began rousing themselves to take on their former friends in the governing Conservative Party (Calgary Herald). The bigger news may have come from the Gulf of Mexico, where a massive oil reservoir was discovered deep underground (Washington Post). While it will be a while before the field brings oil to the market, there is already talk of its effect on world oil prices. This could dampen the dollars enough for the Tories in Ottowa to clear their heads and give the Petrochina deal the long, painful look it deserves.

Meanwhile, word leaked out to the Epoch Times that the latest attempt by the cadres to pilfer state-owned assets and line their pockets had been met with a labor strike in Hunan Province - a telling reminder that the CCP's ongoing struggle to silence and dominate its own people continues to run into problems.

Of course, we have no idea how any of these items will resolve themselves, but we can be more optimistic about them than we could have been earlier in the week. While no one is really sure who coined the phrase "a week is a lifetime in politics" (the late UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson came close with the British subdued/deadpan version "a week is a long time in politics"), they were certainly validated this week.

Is the CCP headed for a lost decade?

It didn't take long after the Tiananmen anniversary to slid into the rear-view mirror for the "engagement" crowd to spin up the CCP once more - this time as the saviors of the world economy. The lead cheerleader was World Bank President Robert Zoellick, who had this to say about recent "growth" in the CCP's realm this year (Breitbart): "By and large (China's growth) has not only been a stabilizing force, but a force that will pull the system (out of the downturn)."

While such nonsense is not entirely unexpected from Zoellick, who prior to his current sinecure was doing far more damage as U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, it certainly was treated as heady stuff in Zhongnanhai. There's only one problem: the CCP's economic "recovery" is largely a regime-driven fantasy that could very well repeat Japan's "lost decade."

To see what I mean, let's take a look at the recent "growth" Zoellick trumpets (Bloomberg). For starters, growth in the first quarter (January to March) was only 6.1% a figure that does not keep up with population growth - meaning the average resident under the CCP's thumb grew poorer this year.

Secondly, the forces behind the "growth" should be troubling to anyone knowledgeable of recent economic history (Bloomberg again):

China’s spending on factories, property and roads surged by the most in five years as the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package countered a record slump in exports.

. . .

Since the stimulus was announced in November, the nation has built 20,000 kilometers (12,430 miles) of rural roads, 445 kilometers of highway and 100,000
square meters (1.08 million square feet) of airport buildings, the National Development and Reform Commission said on May 21. China is also building 5.2
million low-rent homes over three years.

In other words, regime-driven "stimulus" was the main driver; without it, there might not have been any "growth" at all. To anyone even remotely familiar with 1990s Japan, this is not a comforting development.

A slew of Japanese governments tried public works spending in a desperate attempt to pull the Japanese economy out of the ditch. It failed so spectacularly that the period is now known as Japan's "lost decade." Even today, the Japanese economy is still feeling the after-effects of wasted resources, mounting debt, and lost private investment.

If this is where the CCP is headed, it will be a much rougher ride.

Japan's "lost decade" also came with unprecedented political competition. The long-governing Liberal Democratic Party actually lost power for brief intervals, and its dominance over Japanese politics was forever destroyed. Meanwhile, even within the LDP, reformers fought pitched battles for control - and sometimes actually won them. The economic doldrums brought with them a pathway to political maturity for the Land of the Rising Sun, a pathway it is still walking to this day.

The CCP, by contrast, will be in no mood for any political competition should the economy continue to stumble. Instead, we will see more arrests, more phantom concessions to protesters, and - as always when the Chinese Communist Party is involved - more bloodshed.

Even so, one would think that the CCP would find a way to muddle through, as it always has. I'm not so sure this time, and ironically, it could be the "engagement" crew itself that has unwittingly put in motion the regime's unexpected endgame.

What with Zoellick's comments (which are far from isolated) there will be many in the elites of the democratic world who are expecting and hoping for CCP-fueled economic growth to pull the rest of the world out of recession. When it doesn't happen, Beijing will be peppered with friendly advice on what to do different. In Japan, such advice was outwardly taken with a mixture of false gratitude and real annoyance, but opposition movements within the country seized upon the admonitions of Wall Street, Washington, and others to force domestic debates.

The CCP will allow no such thing. As it slowly dawns on the "engagement" crowd that the CCP cares less for their various nations' economies and more about preserving its own power, it could very well lose some of its strongest and most vital foreign supporters. It will certainly make the electorates in those nations far more anti-Communist in thoughts and votes.

Thus could the largest piece missing from the anti-Communist puzzle - a united free world determined to help the Chinese people take their country back - be put in place by the very people who are trying to prevent it from happening, all because no one seems to have remembered the lessons from Japan's "lost decade."

Those who do not remember history . . .

Twenty Years Later

So here we are, at another June 4 that much of the rest of the world won’t notice. It is all the more painful here in the West in that this anniversary – the 20th is one of our more important ones. It will hurt to see those who so bravely gave their lives be so cruelly forgotten.

The irony here – and one we must remember – is that this year, more than any other except perhaps for 1989 itself, we can truly say that those who were murdered did not die in vain. For whatever the rest of the world thinks of the Tiananmen Square bloodbath, the Chinese Communist Party is more afraid of it than it has ever been.

It would seem odd that this would be so. After all, the cadres have spent the last two decades erasing the Tiananmen Spring from local history books, and have rather brilliantly co-opted the previously non-Communist elite into the regime. Likewise, they seem to have convinced much of the rest of the world to move on and embrace the “new” China of the 21st Century. However, below the surface, it’s abundantly clear that the pressures that led the people to take to the streets in 1989 have never really gone away. They just went underground, and thus have become the cadres’ obsession.

We remember the students of 1989, but the CCP also remembers the laborers, farmers, pensioners, and other ordinary Chinese who joined the demonstrations (yes, that’s plural – it’s believed that 1 in 10 Chinese citizens joined some demonstration in hundreds of cities and towns that year). The cadres knew how to handle the intellectuals: a dose of radical nationalism and a slew of licenses-to-steal (otherwise known as Party Cards) did much of the trick. Thus, Beijing appears the model of peace and tranquility – to locals and outsiders.

Go beyond Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, or Shenzhen, however, and it’s a different story. The anger, fear, and frustrations are still there, met not with kind words and incentives but party-sanctioned violence and corruption. In fact, the CCP pyramid scheme used to win over the intellectuals in the cities actually made the situation in the countryside worse – since it was peasants and laborers who were forced to pay for the CCP’s plans.

This is the real reason Tiananmen – even today – must remain buried in the past: too many people outside the cities remember what really happened, and have no interest in forgetting. We who live and work outside China rarely see this, in no small part because the cadres cannot afford to let us. Much like the hard-line Communists in Europe saw their regimes collapse when the outside world noticed the people’s anger, so, too, would the CCP if the foreign approval upon which it depends turned into wishing – and helping – the Chinese take their country back.

So, to prevent this, the cadres have to make sure June 4 passes by quietly – or, to be more accurate, that something else distracts our attention. For years, it hasn’t taken very much (a late Presidential primary, the proximity of the D-Day anniversary, etc.). This year, however, the anniversary so spooked the cadres that they apparently allowed (and perhaps even encouraged) their Korean colony to become a nuclear power – a rather large role of the dice that, if they’re not careful, could lead to more Americans and others catching on to the ruse.

That the CCP felt compelled to let Kim Jong-il frighten the entire free world, spin South Korea permanently away from the pro-Beijing “sunshine” of the last decade, and nearly inject an unexpected hawkishness into the Obama Administration is a sign of just how desperate the regime wanted the Tiananmen anniversary off the front pages. If they remain that scared of the 20-year-old crackdown, lovers of freedom cannot be completely discouraged.

Moreover, despite what the CCP would have us believe, the future is actually bright for anti-Communists. After two decades of prosperity-fueled corruption, the regime is facing a recession that could leave tens of millions of Party Members without the ill-gotten perks to which they think they are entitled. India and the United States have moved closer than at any time in 40 years, while CCP ally Pakistan is losing credibility in Washington faster than it’s losing territory to the Taliban. Japan and South Korea are now firmly in the anti-Communist camp, and even Taiwan, despite the Communist-friendly Nationalist government, seems to be returning to its anti-Communist roots.

All the while, the historical symbol of bloody repression hangs everywhere. Invisible but undeniable, it reminds tens of millions of Chinese that there was, once, a different path, and makes laughable every effort by the CCP to make it go away. With what the regime felt it had to do to keep the past away, we can truly see that it (the past) is still strong enough to guide the present and the future.Communism in China will fall; the only question remains: how much time, blood, and treasure must be lost before it does? That question can only be answered by those who helped accelerate the end of European Communism but, for now, have yet to do the same to Chinese Communism – namely, us.

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal and Virginia Virtucon

I guess Iran just wasn't ready

I must confess that I was surprised to hear that the Stalinist regime in northern Korea had conducted a nuclear test (BBC), especially when it occurred to me where we are on the calendar (less than two weeks out from the Tiananmen Square anniversary). Until yesterday, I had always assumed it was the Iranian mullahcracy who would conduct a test at this time. I can only assume that the mullahs just weren't ready yet.

Whatever reasons the Stalinists had for conducting the test can and will be analyzed and debated around the world and throughout the world wide web. However, we must not forget to examine why the Chinese Communist Party allowed it to happen - and make no mistake; this sort of thing does not happen unless it was run by the CCP. For the answer to this question, we must go back to the calendar.

I write this on May 26; in roughly a week and a half, the twentieth anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre will be upon us. It was the one anniversary that scared the cadres more than any other - not because it alone could threaten the regime, but because it could aid or even set in motion a chain of events that could lead to the regime's downfall in the future. This is why I assumed that the Iranian mullahcracy - the CCP's strongest ally in the Middle East - would gladly take attention away from Beijing with a nuclear test.

Instead, Kim Jong-il seized the honor, but for the cadres, the main effect is the same. This test assures Beijing that Tiananmen Square will be nowhere near the front page on June 4, 2009. In fact, the CCP will likely see more democratic leaders praise it for trying to restrain its Korean colony, while insisting no one has the right to push the regime on touchy domestic issues while it is busy with the critical task of bringing Kim Jong-il et al into line.

To get an idea how this will play out, take a look at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's utterly forgettable trip to meet with CCP leaders. For years, Pelosi was one of the very few members of Congress who understood the danger the CCP posed to the world. Now, flushy with power and allies in the White House, she has fallen for the "engagement" nonsense and has gone instead - hat in hand - to talk about climate change, an issue in which the CCP can once again look "responsible" without doing anything except pull the wool over the eyes of politicians who know better.

It will be the same with Korea. Already, the regime is calling for "coolheaded and appropriate" (Voice of America) action - i.e., don't do anything to risk the Korean colony. Keep in mind, the CCP has had plenty of opportunities to solve this problem all by itself. Yet it has instead chosen to prop up Kim even as he starved his own people and threatened his neighbors (I would even say it has preserved him because he threatened his neighbors, but more on that later). We must also remember that Beijing voted for sanctions against its colony in the past - only to announce it wouldn't enforce them hours later. In short, the Chinese Communist Party has never been serious about keeping Kim Jong-il in check.

Why? The reason is simple: Kim doesn't threaten Beijing; he only threatens the United States and America's allies, which makes him immensely useful. Moreover, he is more than willing to take full blame for his actions in the world community, knowing that Beijing's backing ensures that he can survive the ever growing pile of hollow words. Thus, the CCP gets the benefit of a distracted and scared free world with none of the consequences of having a hand in the distracting and scaring. The CCP even ends up watching the democratic world beg it to fix the mess that it created.

In other words, the CCP allows Kim Jong-il to behave like this because they want him to behave like this. Until that changes, he will keep this up, to the point of actually helping terrorists acquire the weapons they need to do us grievous harm.

If we truly wish to have the Korean colony reined in, we'll have to go over their heads. We'll have to make sure Beijing suffers immediate consequences for this: things like the revocation of Permanent Normal Trade Relations, talks with Japan and South Korea about deploying domestic nuclear deterrents (Japan will likely be more receptive to that than South Korea, but the offer should be made), a permanent American naval presence in the South China Sea, and perhaps even a revival of the American defense pact with the Republic of China (currently on Taiwan). The CCP has been using North Korea to distract us for nearly two decades; we need to create and push our own distractions against them.

However, that cannot be all we do. We must also make clear that any act of nuclear terrorism against America, her interests, or her allies, will be taken as an act of war by the CCP against the United States. Whether it's al Qaeda, the Taliban, the Iranian mullahs, the Kimist regime in northern Korea, or anyone in between, nearly every terrorist state or entity has been blessed with support from the CCP. Zhongnanhai must be told in no uncertain terms that we will bear the CCP personally responsible (as opposed to China in general) for actions that any of them take against us.

Finally, we must come to terms with the painful but unavoidable truth: America and her allies will never be secure until China is free. Our enemies in the War on Terror will, if defeated, simply be replaced by other ones as quickly as the CCP get find ambitious people who hate America as much as Beijing fears her. North Korea is, in many respects, the first and last evidence we should need on this. It is time we recognize that we are fighting - and must win - the Second Cold War.

Some apologies Obama could make, but probably won't

President Barack Obama continued his worldwide apology tour at the Organization of American States over the weekend. Much like his trip to Europe was spent emphasizing his break with the previous Administration on several fronts, this trip was all about the new direction America will take - one that will apparently leave Venezuela's brave democrats in the dust, but that's for another post.

Of course, new Administrations usually spend their first few months emphasizing their differences with their respective predecessors. John F. Kennedy tried to project his youthful image and vigor into nearly every foreign policy issue. Eight years later, Richard Nixon's messages to Moscow and Beijing were more subtle (and kept a secret from the American people), but Mao and Brezhnev understood them fairly quickly. Jimmy Carter tried to turn thirty years of American history on its head in one commencement speech. If conventional wisdom is to be believed, Reagan got the point across to Tehran even before he was inaugurated. Despite running as Reagan's heir, even George Bush the Elder spent his first year emphasizing a closer relationship with continental European allies. Bill Clinton spent nearly two years loudly announcing differences from the previous twelve. Bush the Younger's divergence on Kyoto and other European multilateral efforts are now the stuff of legends, but Asian democracies quickly noticed that he paid more attention to them than - arguably - any president in American history.

Thus, it should not surprise us that, roughly 100 days into his term of office, Obama is mainly emphasizing contrasts with the person he succeeded - and against whom he railed for nearly two years. Sadly, and more tellingly, are the areas where the President has chosen not to strike new ground or ask forgiveness for past errors.

For example, we have yet to see, and probably never will see, Obama apologize to the Chinese people for nearly 20 years of neglect while "engagement" with the corrupt Chinese Communist Party set the tone for every previous post-Tiananmen presidency.

We neither have nor likely ever will have witnessed Obama ask the forgiveness of the people of northern Korea for allowing so many of their loved ones to starve to death, be murdered, and/or be tortured to death while Kim Jong-il played two presidents for fools over fourteen years. Likewise, Japan has heard no regrets for the nerve-wracking missile launches that were largely received with a shrug and a slew of useless words from the United Nations.

Obama has offered a regret-soaked olive branch to Tehran - but only for the mullahcracy and its sycophants. The long-suffering Iranian people received the same cold shoulder that has been shown to them for decades.

Any of the above apologies would be different from the easy and empty ones the Administration has been spouting. The apologies I propose would involve recognition of weakness and lack of nerve at critical times. More importantly, they would show an Administration willing to do the hard work necessary to achieve a true, lasting peace - because it understood that could only come with freedom.

Ironically enough, Obama can look to George W. Bush for the best example of this. In May of 2005, Bush expressed his regrets for the Yalta agreement that handed Eastern Europe over to the Communists. The dramatic gesture helped seal the peoples of Eastern Europe as America's closest allies, and emphasized the danger of thinking a deal with a tyrant today is worth his exploitation of it tomorrow. Unfortunately, that may be the very reason Obama does not consider it worthy as a precedent. This Administration appears to have no concern about what our tyrannical enemies will do with their newfound opportunities, namely: 1) bind America to agreements they have no intention of honoring, 2) repeatedly raising the bar just to see how high the president will jump for them, and 3) using the smiles and handshakes to ostracize and persecute those who would lead their victims to overthrow them and take their countries back.

Even as we take in the reaction from the OAS gathering, the Taliban continues to gain strength in Pakistan, North Korea is getting back in the plutonium business, and Iran is moving forward in both nuclear weapons and repression of its citizens. All the while, the regime that aides them - the Chinese Communist Party - continues to avoid blame or consequences.

For that, this president owes all of us an apology.

Past and present collide

One last sliver of what the Chinese Communist Party will certainly call "the good ol' days" popped up this morning amidst the gloom of the new reality: Communist China passed Germany in 2007 to become the third largest economy on the planet (BBC and CNN). Now only the United States and Japan can claim larger economies.

I'm sure it was quite nostalgic for the cadres, as they continue to face the effects of a crippling economic slowdown (Guardian, UK) and an ever-increasing resentment of Communist corruption (Epoch Times).

In fact, the battle between past and present was the prominent theme of today's collection of news. Regarding relations with the United States, the cadres put the halcyon past on display once more - marking the 30th anniversary of the official establishment of diplomatic relations (Bloomberg). They even got the usual throw-Taiwan-under-the-bus language from their American guests. Meanwhile, Dr. Henry Miller detailed how Communist corruption has literally poisoned Sino-American trade relations of multiple levels in the Washington Times.

Even the shibboleths of the recent past are crumbling. President Bush still hasn't left office, yet the world-hates-America theme is already being debunked (Weekly Standard) - to the point that "polling data from the Pew Research Center shows that the United States still has approval ratings of more than 50% across Asia, giving it a more positive reputation than China" (Weekly Standard Blog). Ouch!

Not that recent events have been all bad for the Communists. Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton's tough words on the cadres' Korean colony (One Free Korea) were a painful reminder of how far we have fallen from the time when such words were commonplace - and credible (OFK). The viceroy has even gone so far as to pick his successor, we think (OFK).

Still, it should be clear that things are different now. Foreign investment is drying up, the ability to buy off the various elites who would otherwise form an anti-Communist civil society is vanishing, more Americans are seeing the regime as an immediate, personal threat due to poisoned exports, and the rest of the world (particularly Asia) has recovered as healthy perspective on Zhongnanhai and Washington. The trends that pointed to the CCP's ascendancy on the world stage have suddenly shifted. We will see if the CCP adapts before the Chinese people are able to notice.

Japan is back in the anti-Communist business (and just in time)

On the eastern side of the Pacific, two election campaigns and one very weird week on Wall Street have taken up most of the attention. That is unfortunate (though understandable) because the bigger long-term news may have come from the western side of the ocean.

In short, it was not a good weekend for the Chinese Communist Party. The melamine-milk fiasco zoomed past 50,000 victims over the weekend, with over 13,000 still hospitalized (BBC). The cadres cut loose their first high-profile scapegoat - the head of food safety (BBC and CNN). To make matters worse, other consumer items are coming up with poisons, too (Epoch Times). Talk of closing borders is already working its way through the blogosphere (Small Dead Animals).

Of course, the cadres still have their Korean colony, with which they can manipulate the free world (BBC), but that game became much tougher to play now, for Japan has a new Prime Minister - Taro Aso (BBC, CNN, and the Washington Post). Aso has been one of the leading anti-Communists in Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, and his election as PM means the accommodating era of Yasuo Fukuda is over.

For the first time is decades, both Japan and South Korea have leaders suspicious of Beijing and Pyongyang at the helm - meaning the next American president will find limitations in his "engagement" efforts (should he choose to make any). It also means that the twin tyrannies will no longer be able to play America and her allies against one another to isolate the "hard-liners" (as happened with Japan prior to Fukada's ascension and South Korea upon the election of Lee Myung-bak).

By itself, Aso's ascension to PM is hardly earth-shattering, but when combined with the melamine debacle, more reports of repression (BBC, Between Heaven and Earth, CNN, and the Epoch Times), and more counterfeit finds (Epoch Times), it capped off what was a very bad weekend for the cadres.

More importantly, Aso and Lee are now in a position to ensure the CCP's geopolitical isolation, so long as North American leaders are willing to follow suit. We'll find that out soon enough. IN the meantime, one of the Beijing regime's largest advancements in the region - a friendly government in Tokyo, just vanished.

Hong Kong and the Beijing bounceback

Here in the United States, talk of a "bounce" was centered on the Republican and Democratic conventions. In Hong Kong, however, it was a "Beijing bounce" that overawed the political culture. In theory, a surge of "patriotism" from the Communist Olympiad would lead to smashing pro-Beijing victories in Hong Kong's Legislative Council (half the seats are elected by the people, the other half by "functional constituencies," i.e., group designed to ensure a pro-Communist majority).

However, like nearly everything else about the Games, the intended effect was nowhere to be found (BBC). Pro-democracy candidates won 60% of the vote (again - BBC) a majority of the elected seats (again), and even took a couple of the functionals (again). The result was so shocking that the city had its own Dewey-defeats-Truman moment, courtesy of the Hong Kong Standard. So, here, even in a city under Communist control with limited liberty, the Communists' Olympic game plan went awry.

Things have been no better outside Communist China. Japan is still concerned over the Communist military (Japan Times); Communist espionage in Canada continues to be front-page news (Ottawa Citizen) and Europe (London Telegraph); businesses around the world are having second thoughts about using Communist China as an export platform (Washington Post); the Long Arm of Lawlessness continues to rankle in New York (Epoch Times); and even the Communists' claim to Taiwan was turned against them by Congressman Elton Gallegly, who cleverly used it to demand the regime make good on $260 billion in Nationalist Chinese debt (Washington Times).

Even elsewhere inside Communist China, things are less than what the cadres had expected: protests in Hunan (Epoch Times), a Paralympiad that merely highlights how terrible the regime treats the disabled (Radio Free Asia via Epoch Times and the Washington Post), Sichuan earthquake victims demanding to know what happened to aid promised them (Sound of Hope via Epoch Times), soaring inflation (Epoch Times), and a teenage girl beaten by police (Epoch Times).

About all the Communists can do is declare war on the German press (Epoch Times) and try to divert attention to its space program (BBC), although the Korean colony had a good weekend (One Free Korea).

Still, the big news is in the former British colony. The Communists have now had over a decade to try and wear down and overwhelm the Hong Kong democrats - once united as the Democratic Party and now split among several parties. Yet the regime has always failed. This was their best chance. They had the urbane Donald Tsang as Chief Executive instead of the deeply unpopular Tung Chee-hwa; they had years of building goodwill with democratic nations that should know better; and, of course, they had the Olympics.

In the end, though, it got them nothing in Hong Kong. The voters refused to be seduced by Tsang, or the Games, or anything else. In the one place where democracy was allowed to live - for the express purpose of dying so the Communists could showcase the body to the rest of China - it has continued to survive because the people of Hong Kong refuse to let it expire.

The people of Hong Kong have shown uncommon bravery, compassion, and concern for their fellow man at the ballot box. They live a quiet heroism the cadres fear, and the free world must not ignore (including certain bloggers who usually focus on rural unrest).

CCP's neighbors are moving away from it

One would suspect that if the Communist Olympiad were as successful as the cadres claim it was, it would have an impact in foreign affairs, i.e., pro-"engagement" politicians would be basking in the glow while more hard-line leaders would be lowering their profile.

That's not what we see in the neighborhood, though.

In Japan, Beijing's best friend in the region stepped down as Prime Minister - due to widespread unpopularity (CNN and Washington Post). It's possible that the now-ex-PM's policies did not match well with the news of poisoned dumplings exported from Communist China to Japan (Epoch Times). In any event, the most likely successor is long-time anti-Communist Taro Aso (BBC and One Free Korea), which would mean a sea change in Japan's relations with the CCP. His counterpart in Taiwan (President Ma Ying-jeou) had several thousand anti-Communists show up on his front door this weekend demanding he stop tacking toward Beijing (BBC). Even local-level "engagement" backers like the Mayor of Vancouver are taking it on the rhetorical chin (Boycott 2008).

Meanwhile, in South Korea, President Lee Myung-bak is taking in more refugees from the Communists' Korean colony (One Free Korea), despite more bluster from said colony (OFK).

What happened? Why are the anti-Communists ascendant after the Communists' great propaganda bonanza?

Well, perhaps it wasn't really a bonanza after all (and I'm happy to see Grit Hartman agree with me - Epoch Times), and the post-mortems (literally in some cases - Boycott 2008) are only making matters worse. Besides the pre-Olympic murder in the aforementioned link, we have an entire family imprisoned because one man protested during the Games (Washington Post) and lingering anger in Taiwan about the "Chinese Taipei" label (Epoch Times - this may in part explain the anti-Ma protest). The 2008 Games are so tarnished that London City Councillor felt safe criticizing the athletes who participated (Boycott 2008).

Thus, without the Olympic "bounce," the cadres were stuck with reports of corruption in the billions of dollars (Epoch Times), environmental protests (Epoch Times), international support for Gao Zhisheng (Epoch Times and Boycott 2008), criticism of the brutal occupation of East Turkestan (Epoch Times), nationalist anger at the border treaty with Russia (Epoch Times), and nervousness from the rest of the world about the regime's geopolitical objectives (The Australian and Boycott 2008).

As if that weren't bad enough, the lawsuit against regime-owned Bank of China for facilitating Hamas financing continued to get more press (NTDTV and Pajamas Media).

Given all of this, it shouldn't surprise anyone that those who would coddle up to the regime are resigning or facing criticism. The only surprise may be that the post-Olympic hangover is coming much quicker than expected, if only because few of us new the Olympics themselves would be such a bust.

News of the Weekend (May 10-12)

Counterfeit computer parts from Communist China installed in government computers: According to ABC News, the fake Communist exports "were sold to the U.S. Naval Academy, U.S. Naval Air Warfare Center, U.S. Naval Undersea Warfare Center, the General Services Administration, the U.S. air base in Spangdahlem, Germany -- which is home to the Air Force's 52nd Fighter Wing -- and defense contractor Raytheon." These agencies (and Raytheon) "thought they were getting top-notch products from Cisco" (Also reporting: IDG News via Yahoo).

Faulty electrical system from Communist China kills American soldiers in Iraq: Because of improper grounding, Communist Chinese systems such as those that have electrocuted Americans in Iraq "did not comply with U.S. electrical safety standards" (Pittsburgh Tribune Review), and thus are not allowed to be used here.

Communist China provided key parts for North Korea-built nuclear facility in Syria: Unnamed firms from Communist China sold parts to Namchongang Trading (a.k.a. NCG), a firm "owned" by a lackey of Kim Jong-il that "provided the critical link between Pyongyang and Damascus" (Washington Post) for the latter's nuclear weapons program.

More news from "another Chinese province": The boxes of documents that the Stalinist regime handed to the United States is now out of North Korea (BBC), while several "analysts" continue to be in denial about the regime (One Free Korea). Meanwhile, a more detailed account of the Communist Chinese colony's ties to terrorism comes to light (OFK).

More 0n Communist China and the rest of the world: Japanese Prime Minister is friendly with Communist China (Washington Post), but the parliament is about to repeal domestic restrictions against space weaponry (BBC). Hugo Chavez and his Communist allies plan a joint oil venture in Venezuela (Bloomberg). Peter Coates warns his fellow Australians about getting to cozy with Communist China (Epoch Times).

Olympic news and commentary: As the torch entered and left Xiamen (BBC), uneasiness about the Communist Olympiad continues. The Washington Post editors rip the Int'l Olympic Committee's attempt to silence participating athletes. The Epoch Times has several pieces: Pam McLennan on human rights as the Games approach, Feng Changle on the militarism surrounding them, and Thomas Kleiber comparing 2008 to 1936. Meanwhile, Sushil Seth (Taipei Times via Boycott 2008) notes how the Communists are the authors of their own pre-Olympic problems, and David Matas writes about using the Games to shame the regime into ending organ harvesting (Boycott 2008).

More on the future of Commmunist China: The Independent (UK) lists the failures the cadres must face; the Times of India (via Boycott 2008) focuses on the impoverished interior and how it could lead to the downfall of the regime; and David Frum (National Review Online) laments the destruction of Old Beijing.

News of the Day (May 7)

Is the Communist regime "a mature fascist state"? That's the question Michael Ledeen ponders in the Far Eastern Economic Review. Ledeen (one of yours truly's favorite writers) makes a compelling case (although I would quibble with his clean division of Communism and fascism), both in his analysis and his recommendations for American reaction (h/t Uyghur American Association). Columnist Kin-ming Liu sees similar parallels, and concludes: "I can only pray that the West will find another Churchill and Roosevelt" (Post Global via Boycott 2008).

Speaking of the Long Arm of Lawlessness, Wang Dan becomes a victim in New York (Epoch Times) as Makina (Between Heaven and Earth) laments its effects in Canada.

Ignorant Comment of the Day: I hate to do this to Joshua Kurlantzick, who usually is well-versed on the subject of Communist China. However, his discussion on the "young nationalists" (Los Angeles Times via UAA) makes no mention of the Long Arm of Lawlessness that represses overseas Chinese very day, and even falls for the foolish Enlightened Dictator nonsense that has polluted our policies on East and West Asia for decades.

Communists justify crackdown against Tibetans: The Communist regime insisted the brutal repression that began last spring was "completely correct" (Epoch Times), even as talks with the Dalai Lama's aides were being held. The regime threw in a few more lies about the Tibetan leader's "separatist activities" (Agence France Presse via UAA).

More Christians arrested in occupied East Turkestan: Nearly four dozen worshippers were arrested for refusing to put the Chinese Communist Party between themselves and God (One News Now via UAA).

Enterovirus-71 has now sickened over 15,000, of whom 28 have died (CNN). The virus deaths are now being reported in places far from the initial outbreak in Fuyang, Anhui. The cadres suppressed news of the virus for weeks.

Google Earth running afoul of the Communists: The cadres are apparently unhappy with the Google feature due to what they "could reveal . . . about aspects of Chinese life, from labour camps to military installations" (London Telegraph). While Google self-censors its China-specific site, "much of its operations are hosted on Google servers elsewhere, over which the Chinese authorities have no authority, though they can order them to be blocked by the so-called 'Great Firewall' of China."

South Koreans expressing more anger at Communist China's treatment of northern Koreans: In film and on the streets (One Free Korea), more and more Koreans from the democratic South are venting their fury at the Beijing regime that props up Kim Jong-il - in part by sending back any escapee it finds.

More news on "another Chinese province": The Singapore Surrender earns one more critic (Washington Post), while One Free Korea hears that military food supplies are being rerouted "to other members of the elite."

Hu Jintao warmly greeted by Japanese PM: The Koizumi era is definitely over (BBC and Washington Times).

News of the Day (April 8)

"Terror" raid in occupied East Turkestan is "news to residents": A supposed Communist raid against terrorists in the Happiness Garden apartments of Urumqi, East Turkestan never actually happened, according to residents interviewed by Agence France Presse (h/t Uyghur American Association). Tellingly, even an ethnic Chinese apartment dweller contradicted the Communist account (local police refused to talk to AFP). Still, the phantom terror raid was a wonderful excuse to crack down on Uighurs in both occupied East Turkestan and China proper (Wall Street Journal via UAA).

As for actual terrorists, the cadres gave Iranian nuclear info to change the subject from Tibet: The cadres apparently decided that admitting to helping Iran become a nuclear power would get them better publicity than the Tibetan bloodshed (Epoch Times). Sadly, it actually worked for a few days - to this day, no one has called the Communists to account for their long-time alliance with the mullahcracy. Meanwhile, said mullahcracy is charging ahead with their nuclear ambitions (Bloomberg).

Communist China is helping its colonial Korean regime avoid U.S. and UN sanctions by allowing Stalinist firms to due business in Communist China - even setting up accounts in Communist Chinese currency for them. One Free Korea explains how this basically makes any international sanction against Stalinist North Korea's nuclear ambitions utterly useless.

Other news on "another Chinese province": Christopher Hill has more talks with the Stalinists, and more happy words after (BBC); James Zumwalt praises South Korea for standing up to the Stalinist North (Washington Times); and the Stalinists resort to public executions - again - to terrify the populace (OFK).

More espionage arrests: Chao Tai Wei and Guo Zhiyong were charged with trying to ship hi-tech, dual-use cameras to Communist China (Newsmax).

Okinawa furthers Japan's claim to the Senkaku islands with a goat cull, of all things (Weekly Standard Blog).

Protesters force Olympic torch relay in Paris to shut down: In a further sign of the deep revulsion to the Communist Olympiad, anti-Communist protesters in Paris were so numerous that the torch route had to be shortened (BBC, Boycott 2008, and Sky News). The Int'l Olympic Committee is even considering dropping the entire international part of the relay (Times of London - h/t Andrew Stuttaford), but Communist China insisted the spectacle must go on (BBC and CNN). Meanwhile, the presence of Communist Chinese "security" during the British leg of the relay angered many Brits, including 2012 Olympic organizer Sebastian Coe (Curly's Corner Shop and Epoch Times).

Will Canada stay home? That is still a possibility, according to CTV. Edward Greenspan (Toronto Sun) and Steve Janke support the idea; Johann Hari (Independent, UK via Boycott 2008) and apparently, President Bush (World Net Daily), do not.

More Olympic news: As the torch reached San Francisco overnight (Washington Post), politicians across the spectrum called on President Bush not to attend the opening ceremony - Senator Hillary Clinton (Jim Geragthy) for the Democrats, and Congressman Thaddeus McCotter (Human Events) for the Republicans.

Leading lawyers in Communist China offer to help Tibetan detainees: Eighteen lawyers have signed on so far. One of them, Wen Haibo, explained his motives to the Epoch Times, "We believe Tibetans may encounter greater cultural and legal difficulties. With these considerations in my mind, I feel, as a lawyer, I have the obligation to provide some free legal assistance to them." Thus is Shakespeare refuted.

More on Tibet: The Dalai Lama takes (rhetorical) aim at the propagandists in Beijing (National Post, Can.), as does Sushil Seth in the Taipei Times (h/t Boycott 2008).

Daughter of "Taiwanese spy" says her father "could have been forced to confess": Ran Chen is trying to save her father's life (BBC). Wo Weihan was convicted of being a Taiwanese spy, but her daughter is certain he is innocent, and "has not received a fair trial."

Beware the cult of engagement

by Curry Kenworthy

I love Japan. Each free nation in Asia is infinitely precious, and Japan is one of several beacons of light in that region of our world.

As my bookcase testifies, I'm a big fan of Doraemon. (As well as a fan of his favorite snack, Dorayaki, which at times I've often eaten almost as enthusiastically as the cat-shaped cartoon robot himself.) I like Japanese noodle soup, and yakisoba too. (In fact, I've eaten noodle soup in Narita airport, where Wei Jingsheng recently had a surprising experience.)

Japanese influence on worldwide art, entertainment, and technology has been stunning, and its culture is fascinating. From creating trends in cell phones and electronic devices, to changing the face of characters in our cartoons and games, to igniting global crazes for inexplicable but cute fashions like Hello Kitty, to providing many of the cars we drive, and even to fielding walking, talking robotic servants, Japan has made its mark during the decades of reinventing and rebuilding after the Second World War. Its traditional philosophy and martial arts have also provided interest and influence in the world. The Japanese seem to lend a unique style to everything they do. I once saw a documentary on business in Japan showing a fast-food franchise where a customer might receive one of dozens of different styles of greeting based on the perceived type of customer.

But freedom is by far the most important characteristic of modern Japan. That island nation is not only shining a light in Asia, it also is an important military and cultural ally of the free world.

That's why it was a bit depressing to receive alerts from the Wei Jingsheng Foundation about Wei's detention by the Japanese government, preventing him from attending a Tiananmen Square commemoration event in Tokyo, where he was scheduled to deliver a speech.

Wei Jingsheng finally was released, a few days later, and is now out of customs and in Japan. (Update: and he's now on the way back home, if all goes as expected.)

I'm not sure exactly what chain of decisions led to Wei's detention. We may hear more about that, or it may remain somewhat obscured. But since it was a problem for this man to step out of Narita airport before June 4th, but not a problem to step out into the streets of Japan after the event had safely passed, it's reasonable to assume that this was the issue.

Whether China asked Japan specifically to detain Wei, or whether Japanese officials imagined that it would be the polite and cautious thing to do, and whatever reasoning was invoked in the process, I think someone has been listening to the dangerous lies of the engagement/appeasement cult theology.

This is the idea that keeps popping up everywhere, that the enemies of freedom, human rights, and so on can be placated and turned into our bosom friends if we just dialogue, give a little, listen to their demands, and treat them like decent people. Even if they are ruthless dictators, mass murderers, or wild-eyed radicals looking to blow themselves up in your presence. So, if we detain Wei for just a few days, it won't hurt Wei much, and China's government may hate us a bit less, right?

I'd say wrong, on both counts. China's leaders will still despise Japan, and the latest word is that Wei's health hasn't been so good.

Engagement sounds nice, I know. We like a positive-sounding approach. It also reflects the attractive idea of high expectations leading to positive behavioral outcomes. But we need not only high expectations, but realistic expectations, which make sense based on what we know from previous observations. Expecting a hardened criminal to become your buddy and the pillar of your community if you pat him on the back and give him a little of what he demands is a flaky dream. We all know better. And while engagement may be positive-sounding in rhetoric, its results are negative in practice.

Engagement generally only changes the people who are trying to do the engaging. Like a cult, its ideas can appeal to good, well-meaning people. They dream of easy solutions and polite, politically-correct interactions to defuse problems. They start to blame themselves (and others) for aggressions on the other side--absent any real provocation, they imagine that not giving in to unreasonable expectations is itself provocation and aggression. It can all sound so persuasive at first. The next thing you know, you find yourself doing strange things. Like providing development aid to a neighbor who builds up a dangerously capable military force and keeps hyping up popular opinion campaigns against you. Or like detaining Wei Jingsheng for a few days when he comes to give a speech.

We shouldn't pick on Japan in particular, of course. Not by any means; this cult of engagement has been all around the political circles of the world. I'm sure these pernicious beliefs were at work (as well as the government-as-god tendency that develops as our nations become increasingly socialized) when Wang Wenyi was detained in the U.S. for interrupting an event to speak out against a terrible dictator. Which do we hold more sacred, the integrity of the rituals enacted at our political events, or the notions of liberty and justice upon which a nation was founded? U.S. policy is riddled with mistakes deriving from these cult-like beliefs, from the One China policy to the free trade fiasco. Many other countries have gotten taken in by the cult, too.

So, this is not about Japan-bashing. To the contrary, this is about telling our dear friends in Japan to keep shining a light in Asia, and that means not listening to the insidious teachings of the engagement/appeasement cult. It won't help you, and it's dangerous. It leads to policies that weaken and undermine free nations while empowering those who threaten them. And there's a pattern everyone should notice by now: placating the bullies never results in attaining their respect. It only places them in control and gives them, if possible, even more disdain for those they manipulate. When you're dealing with geopolitics, such ideas can have terrible consequences. Engagement is not only a strange belief system, it's potentially suicidal.

Curry Kenworthy is an advocate for China and world freedom. His writings on China issues can be found at http://china-e-lobby.blogspot.com.