Monday, October 09, 2006

Communist China has killed non-proliferation. Here's how we should respond (the McGuire Doctrine).

If the Stalinist regime is to be believed, it has become a nuclear power, and so far, the American response has been troublingly weak (second item). The pundits have been loud, but not particularly helpful, largely because in their hyper-focus on Stalinist North Korea, they have missed the larger point: Communist China has enabled their colony to develop nuclear weapons, and SNK is not alone (remember Iran?). The danger is not uncontrolled nuclear proliferation (the motto here: nukes don't kill people, terrorists kill people). In fact, this nuclear proliferation is hardly "uncontrolled" for it has been aided and abetted by the Chinese Communist Party. Unless this is recognized, any policy coming out of Washington will be too narrowly focused, and likely to fail.

Now, one cannot simply criticize others ideas, particularly on something as important as this. Of course, the best solution is liberation for the people of Iran, Syria, northern Korea, and China. The question is: how can we do that? It is not enough to merely acknowledge that we are in Cold War II; one needs the proper policies to fight it. I thus present the following:

  • Counter-proliferate with our democratic allies: In western Asia, I have already discussed the benefits of Georgia as a possible nuclear power in response Iran's nuclear ambitions. In Eastern Asia, the best candidate is Japan. The U.S. should immediately open talks with Tokyo on the deployment of American nuclear missiles there. In the 1980's NATO responded to a Soviet buildup in intermediate nuclear weapons with the deployment of Pershing II nuclear-tipped missiles into Germany. As it was under NATO command, there was no concern of a German nuke program. A similar parallel can be had in Japan. South Korea and Taiwan should receive the same offer, but they may not accept unless and until it's clear Japan is willing to go ahead. This does two things: give a level of protection to our Asian allies and give us bargaining chips of our own with Communist China. I would also note we should proceed with missile defense, but the Administration is ahead of the game on that issue (UPI via Monsters and Critics).
  • Any nuclear talks should be with Communist China, not the proxies: All of the troublesome nuclear powers (Pakistan, SNK, and Iran) have one thing in common - they are backed by Communist China. Likewise, all of the terrorist groups whom we would fear if they possessed nuclear weapons are backed by those proxies, be it Hezbollah (Iran and Syria), Hamas (Iran), the Taliban (the Pakistani military), and even al Qaeda (the aforementioned Pakistan, and even Communist China itself). Yet no one has tried to hold the Communists accountable as the leading sponsor of terror in the world. It's time that changed. For starters, that means when it comes to the proxies' nuclear weapons program, go over the proxies' heads and straight to Beijing. Not that I expect the Communists to agree to any arms-control deal (or adhere to one they do sign), but it would make abundantly clear whom we would hold responsible for the proxies' nukes.
  • Make clear that we will blame Communist China for any nuclear incident in the free world: If Cuba had use one of its nuclear weapons against the United States in 1962, Washington would have held Moscow responsible. President Kennedy announced that as American policy that fall; the crisis was largely resolved within weeks. Now, a similar statement would not quite have the same effect (unlike the Soviets, the CCP thinks it can win a nuclear war), but Communist China is likely counting on its proxies to hit the U.S. (or somewhere else in the free world) while it stays out of sight. We must make clear this will not happen. Any act of nuclear terrorism will have links back to Communist China. If the Communists understand there will be consequences, they will be less likely to let their proxies play around with the nukes.
  • Enhance our security and counterintelligence systems (borders included): Cold War II cannot be won if we refuse to do battle with the espionage networks in this country. Moreover, we need to ensure the terrorists have as difficult a time as possible getting into the free world. That means better security on the borders and in the ports. It also means a more quickly developed missile defense. Finally, it means greater action against the spy networks here. For those worried about civil liberties, I would note that the Communist espionage network is also engaged in widespread intimidation against Chinese exile communities, so their de facto liberties will be enhanced if we do more to stop their silencers.

It should be noted that this set of policies will, at most, only lead to a steady-state in Cold War II. It will not end the war, nor will the danger be removed. That can only happen when we help the Chinese, Korean, Iranian, Syrian, and Pakistani peoples take their countries back from tyrannical oppressors. Otherwise, these policies will reduce and delay the threat of a nuclear terrorist attack, but not eliminate it. Once again, America will never be secure until China is free.

What the above policies will do is give us the time to help the Chinese people take their country back, without resorting to military force against the Communists or their proxies (not that I would oppose liberation by force). This set of policies - the McGuire doctrine, if you're willing to indulge my ego - can help the democratic world win the Second Cold War with a minimum loss of life. We can all quibble over the details, but at its heart, this doctrine is about recognizing Communist China as the enemy it is. Without that central tenet, alternative policies will ensure a longer Cold War II, or even worse, a Communist-terrorist victory.

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